Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 8th)

Best Days: Exposed beaches this morning, Sunday ahead of the change

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading surf over the coming days (SE windswell for Fri PM)
• NE tending N/NE winds tomorrow, variable into the PM
• E/SE-SE tending S/SE winds Fri, strengthening from the SE into the PM
• Small to tiny Sat with N-N/NE winds, with weak sea breezes
• Moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswell filling in Sun, peaking through the afternoon
• Early N-N/NW tending W/NW-NW winds Sun AM, fresher N into the middle of the day ahead of a S/SW change through the PM
• Easing surf with S/SW-S winds Mon, possibly lingering Tue

Recap

Yesterday played out to script with early, strong S’ly winds quickly shifting to fresh E’ly across most locations, cleaning up the beaches to the east along with a weak mix of windswells to 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, smaller to the west.

Winds then strengthened from the SE through the day, kicking up some new SE windswell across the Surf Coast into the afternoon/evening, easing back today with cleaner conditions on the beaches to the east, weak and peaky/bumpy to the west.

This week and weekend (Jan 9 - 12)

The end of the week looks small to tiny with today’s energy due to ease further tomorrow under offshore NE breezes, freshening a little from the N/NE through the day and variable into the afternoon.

The Mornington Peninsula looks to fade from 2ft with tiny waves to the west, even smaller on Friday with less favourable E/SE-SE tending S/SE winds, freshening into the afternoon.

Some small SE windswell will be kicked up by the E/SE-SE winds through Bass Strait Friday afternoon and evening, easing Saturday from 1-2ft on the Surf Coast as winds shift back to the N-N/NE.

Weak sea breezes are due to kick in again Saturday afternoon but not strong enough to generate any further increase in windswell Sunday.

Instead our new W/SW groundswell should be in the water, building towards a peak through the day.

The source is a strong, slow moving low that’s developing south-west of Western Australia today. A good fetch of W/SW gales will be projected through our western swell window, with the low stalling and then slowly breaking down into tomorrow.

An inconsistent but moderate sized W/SW groundswell is due from this source, filling in Sunday and reaching 3ft+ on the Surf Coast through the day, 4-6ft to the east.

Winds at this stage are a little tricky but look to be N-N/NW at dawn shifting W/NW for a short period before then straightening back up from the N’th early afternoon. A trough then looks to bring a S/SW change into the afternoon/evening but the timing is still up for grabs.

The swell will ease into early next week and S/SW tending S winds look to linger in the wake of Sunday’s change Monday, possibly persisting Tuesday.

Longer term a good but long-range W/SW groundswell is due mid-late week, but closer range swell sources look to overpower this. More on this Friday.