Victorian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday November 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Winds favouring East Coast on Tuesday
• Wed/Thurs looking tricky with difficult winds
• Realaxing onshores Friday with a modest swell should provide some fun waves
• NE winds Saturday favonring open beaches east of Melbourne
• Dynamic mid-latitude low to generate a large windy swell sometime later Sunday or Monday

Recap

Solid swells and generally favourable winds provided great waves throughout most Victorian coasts over the weekend. Saturday morning was a little undersized but the afternoon built to 4-6ft across the Surf Coast, holding a similar size through Sunday (with the odd bigger rogue set). The East Coast built from 6ft+ to 6-8ft+ through Saturday, holding this size into Sunday, and providing great waves across sheltered locations. Wave heights eased today though a reinforcing S/SW swell has kept the Surf Coast around 4-5ft+, with 6ft+ sets east of Melbourne. All days have seen light variable winds through the mornings and afternoon sea breezes; this afternoon’s SE’er is now starting to strengthen a little more though. 

Quality lines in Torquay this morning

Super fun options (between sets) on the Mornington Peninsula this morning

This week (Nov 12 - 15)

A high pressure ridge to the south of the state and a deepening surface trough to the north is squeezing the pressure gradient between the two, and will maintain E/SE winds across most coasts on Tuesday, before a shallow front crosses the coast on Wednesday morning, bringing fresh W/SW winds. 

As such, the best surf on Tuesday will be found at the open beaches east of Melbourne with easing surf around 4-5ft+ at exposed beaches (smaller during the day). The Surf Coast won’t enjoy this wind, though it shouldn’t be too strong so the open beaches should have workable options as wave heights ease from 3-4ft to 2-3ft. Don't get your hopes up.

Wednesday’s front will accompany a low point in surf size with average waves expected in most regions for much of the day (dawn may see light winds in a few areas but it won’t last very long).

On Thursday the first in a series of disjointed swells will arrive, generated by a frontal progression in the Southern Ocean that looked impressive on paper last week but was slowly downgraded over the following days.

We’ll see some OK waves throughout the state - best on Friday as winds become light and variable - but the swell won’t have anywhere near as much size and power as what we’ve seen over the last few days so keep your expectations in check.

Additionally, Thursday looks problematic on the surface with lingering onshore winds as a low pressure system develops east of Tasmania. Surf size should build into the 3ft range west of Melbourne (4-5ft to the east, not big enough for sheltered spots) so current indications are it may not be worth too much effort.

If all goes to plan, the synoptics will shift further east info Friday allowing for light variable winds to settle across the region. It’s not a great setup for the state (and there’ll still be a risk of funky winds) but Friday’s more likely to deliver workable options than Thursday. Wave heights should remain around the same size too. 

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

This weekend (Nov 16 - 17)

The models have a juicy mid-latitude low forming just west of Tasmania over the weekend which could lead to some very dynamic surf conditions. 

At this stage easing surf is expected on Saturday with freshening NE winds feeding into the developing low, which should produce great waves across the open beaches east of Melbourne. Let's ballpark size around the 4ft mark, give or take. West of Melbourne should be around the 2ft mark. 

Sunday’s got a gusty W’ly change on the way as the developing low starts to influence the coastal margin, but as yet it’s too far out to have any confidence on the timing of the associated swell (it may not arrive until late afternoon, or even overnight into Monday). 

Let’s see how things are shaping up in the mid-week update. 

Next week (Nov 18 onwards)

This low will probably dominate the region for a day or two, the most likely scenario is a large short range swell for Monday (possible very large if the US model output - above - is taken at face value) but with gusty SW winds only favouring sheltered locations. 

Looks like it’ll be a very active week on the forecasting bench!

See ya Wednesday.