Victorian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday November 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of swell all week, though Tuesday and Thursday will see the best conditions
• Strong groundswell for Saturday with generally favourable winds
• Reinforcing swell later Sunday or Monday
• Looking like reduced swell activity next week, best for exposed coasts

Recap

Saturday morning came in at the top end of size estimates, with 2ft+ sets west of Melbourne and 4ft+ sets east of Melbourne producing great waves across open beaches under NE winds. Size eased into the afternoon, and Sunday morning was pretty much flat with gusty offshore winds at dawn, before local windswells built through the day behind a mid-morning W’ly change. A new groundswell built overnight Sunday and the Surf Coast swell magnets saw strong 3-5ft sets mid-morning with early offshore winds, ahead of a mid-late morning E’ly change and a slow decrease in size into the afternoon. Open beaches east of Melbourne were 6ft+ with small waves inside sheltered spots, though size is now easing. 

Strong sets across the Surf Coast this morning

This week (Nov 5 - 8)

Much better conditions are expected on Tuesday as a high pressure system creates light variable winds across all coasts.

Surf size will ease from today, reinforced slightly by some mid-period energy trailing a secondary front in the Southern Ocean over the weekend, but most Surf Coast breaks will be down to an inconsistent 2-3ft, perhaps some rare 3-4ft waves at the swell magnets reefs from time to time - but best suited to the open beaches. 

East of Melbourne should offer fun waves in the 4-5ft range at exposed beaches. There won’t really be enough size for Western Port but OK smaller waves are likely across the Flinders stretch.

On Wednesday, an onshore change is expected to move through during the day. Models differ in its timing through Bass Strait, though it’s likely we’ll see most of the morning play out with freshening N/NW breezes. The change could arrive anywhere between noon and 3pm, so aim for an early paddle.

As for surf, we’ll see a small long period swell provide inconsistent 2-3ft waves across the Surf Coast, with bigger 3-5ft sets persisting across the open beaches east of Melbourne (though they’ll be largely blown out). Small Flinders will be an option as well.

Another strong front is expected to cross the coast on Friday, so Thursday will be between systems with generally light NW winds and intermittent, easing surf from the swell we’re expecting to see on Wednesday. Early 2-3ft sets are possible across the Surf Coast reefs but I suspect it’ll be very slow going. East of Melbourne is probably a better bet, though early morning may retain some of the surface wobble leftover from Wednesday’s change. 

Friday looks very interesting though ultimately any new swell prospects will be spoiled by strong W/SW tending SW winds which will develop mid-late morning onwards. 

Early on will see cleaner conditions (west of Melbourne) under freshening W/NW winds but surf size will be smaller at that time, before we see a kick in bumpy surf to 3-4ft by late afternoon (more size is expected overnight). However, at this stage I’m not expecting enough size for a late surf along the sheltered bays and points of the Great Ocean Road, or Western Port.

This weekend (Nov 9 - 10)

I like the look of this weekend.

Friday’s front will have cleared to the east by Saturday, allowing winds to become light NW as a strengthening polar low develops well to the SW of Tasmania. 

The primary groundswell associated with Friday’s change is expected to nose into the coast on Saturday morning, and should build the Surf Coast to 4-5ft at the swell magnets reefs (smaller elsewhere). East of Melbourne should push up towards 6-8ft at exposed beaches with small waves inside Western Port and solid options across the Flinders region.

Surf size will probably ease through Sunday morning though a reinforcing swell is on the cards either for the end of the day, or Monday (I’ll firm up timing in Wednesday’s update). At this stage there’s no clear indication as to local winds for Sunday, so chances are reasonable that it should be another worthwhile day of waves along the Surf Coast.

Next week (Nov 11 onwards)

The reinforcing S/SW swell from the aforementioned polar low should produce some good waves on Monday; this swell direction is ideal for Victoria as it tends to favour the Surf Coast with proportionally a little more size. 

Let’s give it a few days to sort itself out in the weather models, and we can then discuss size/timing etc.

Otherwise, the rest of next week and the following weekend looks like it could be the start of an extended pattern os smnaller surf as the storm track weakens and contracts to the south.

This doesn’t by any stretch suggest poor surf, but what it does point towards is a period favouring exposed regions over the Surf Coast, and we’ll need to dial into the best wind outlook to maximise surf time.

See you Wednesday!