Victorian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday November 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Great waves at open beaches east of Melb on Saturday (only small west of Melb)
• Sun will be a write-off
• Good waves west of Melb Monday (biggest) as well as Tues/Wed with favourable AM winds
• Small surf at Western Port on Monday
• Better options at open beaches east of Melbourne Tues/Wed
• More strong swell due next weekend

Recap

Early Thursday morning offered a fun window of light winds and inconsistent 3ft sets in Torquay, before onshore breezes bumped things up from mid-late morning onwards. Today’s seen small weak leftover surf with generally onshore winds and no real surfing opportunities of any note. Surf size has been bigger east of Melbourne but poor in quality under persistent onshore winds. 

This weekend (Nov 2 - 3)

Sunday looks terrible with small leftover swells and a brief window of gusty pre-frontal N/NW winds swinging fresh W/SW through the morning. 

As such, Saturday is your best chance for a wave this weekend.

Wave heights are holding steady at the Cape Sorell buoy, though the period is low (owing to its nearby source of only modest wind speeds), which means surf size will probably remain very small west of Torquay, perhaps some stray 2ft sets at exposed beaches but easing to 1ft through the day.

East of Melbourne will see better surf options with more size (3-4ft easing to 2-3ft), so it’ll be ideal for the open beaches.

Local conditions look really good on paper with winds out of the NE, however it's worth noting that the current onshore flow is modeled to slowly veer SE then E’ly overnight, before tending NE around dawn. So, early morning may retain some surface lumpiness at exposed spots - but it’ll only get better as the day progresses. However the best conditions (later in the afternoon) will coincide with smaller wave heights.

Next week (Nov 4 onwards)

A deepening mid-latitude low located S/SW of WA today will develop nicely over the weekend, generating a solid swell for the start of next week.

The low is expected to track just north of our ideal swell window (see below), so the resulting swell direction will be more westerly than we’d prefer, but we’ll see a solid kick overnight Sunday with Monday morning revealing 3-5ft sets across the Surf Coast (note: the upper end of this size range will only be found across the swell magnet reefs, with smaller waves elsewhere).

Even better, Sunday’s onshore flow will ease back overnight and should swing to a light NW breeze, so conditions should be relatively clean, if a touch lumpy at some exposed spots.

Just bear in mind that set waves become less consistent as the swell direction clocks around to the west.

Winds will swing to the west through the middle of the day then south-west later on, so early will be best. 

A reinforcing swell from a secondary front (in fact, initially an impressive polar low south of Heard Island today!) should maintain 3-4ft sets west of Melbourne on Tuesday morning, and winds look even better with light offshore winds in the morning tending to a sea breeze pattern into the afternoon. Size will ease slowly through the day.

Smaller long-period swell originating from the aforementioned polar low will provide inconsistent 2-3ft sets west of Melbourne on Wednesday with freshening pre-frontal N’ly winds.

East of Melbourne next week will be too big and wind affected across the open beaches (6-8ft), but there’ll be enough size for small waves at Western Port on Monday (solid lumpy options at Flinders too) as well as sheltered spots elsewhere. 

Tuesday looks like a better day for the open beaches with easing 4-6ft sets (3-5ft Flinders) whilst Wednesday will come in a touch smaller but offering the cleanest conditions of all.

No major swells are on the radar for the rest of the week, however we have a large Southern Ocean low expected to develop south of the continent around this time that should set up a strong swell for the weekend - probably Sunday - with plenty of size expected throughout the state (favouring Torquay). More on this in Monday’s update.

Have a great weekend!