Victorian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday October 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun waves Thurs/Fri morning west of Torquuay
• Great waves at open beaches east of Melbourne Sat (small west of Melb)
• Sun will be a write-off
• Return of fun waves west of Melbourne Mon/Tues, maybe Wed

Recap

Some OK waves on offer for the last few days, with 3ft sets west of Melbourne both Tuesday and Wednesday, under early cross-offshore tending onshore winds. We’ve seen bigger but bumpy (and generally low quality) surf east of Melbourne that’s not big enough for protected spots. 

This week (Oct 31 - Nov 1)

No change to the short term outlook, with an onshore change due around lunchtime Thursday likely to see light/mod NW winds prior to its arrival, which will create early clean conditions across the Surf Coast region.

Surf size should hold similar to today with slow sets around the 3ft mark across the Torquay reefs, so aim for a morning paddle for the best waves. 

East of Melbourne again will linger in that surf category that’s too small for protected spots, but too lumpy and wind affected across the open beaches - albeit only moderate in strength. Early morning should however offer some OK waves across the Flinders stretch.

Friday will see a general SW flow easing across the state, with a chance for light morning W/NW breezes across the Surf Coast. A minor reinforcing swell trailing Thursday’s front should maintain 2-3ft surf across the Torquay reefs, with lumpy 3-5ft surf at the open beaches east of Melbourne (again, too small for Western Port et al).

This weekend (Nov 2 - 3)

Saturday looks great for the open beaches. Friday’s lingering swell reinforcement will gradually fade through the day but there should still be just enough energy for slow 2ft waves west of Melbourne early on (smaller later), however it’ll only be suitable to the open beaches thanks to a moderate but freshening NE airstream as a high pressure system sets up east of Bass Strait and a front approaches from the west.

Exposed beaches east of Melbourne will be a much better choice with these winds and likely surf size (~4ft) being ideal for both the Peninsula and Island. Expect a slight drop in size through the day.

Sunday looks terrible with very small leftover surf and pre-dawn gale-force N’ly winds swinging westerly early-mid morning, but with no appreciable kick in surf until very late in the day (if at all… Monday is a safer bet). 

So, flag Sunday and make sure you aim for a paddle on Saturday.

Next week (Nov 4 onwards)

The models have a nice mid-latitude low winding up south of WA on Friday that looks like it’ll slingshot through Victoria’s western swell window over the weekend (see below), generating a nice swell for Monday that’ll hold into Tuesday before easing into Wednesday.

The storm track is slightly north than what we'd prefer to see, so the resulting swell direction looks to be more W’ly than is ideal - which will influence size prospects west of Melbourne, where winds will be best suited - but there should be enough energy for 3-4ft sets across the reefs. 

More on this in Friday's update.