Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday October 4th)

Best Days: Sunday once the swell kicks in, Monday morning, Wednesday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny tomorrow
• Moderate sized mix of W/SW swells building Sun, peaking later, easing a touch Mon, with a reinforcing pulse Tue AM, easing
• Fresh W/NW winds Sun, easing and tending W/SW-W for a period into the PM, back W/NW later
• Fresh NW winds Mon AM, shifting strong SW into the PM
• Fresh S winds Tue
• Easing S/SW swell Wed with variable NE tending fresh SE winds
• Tiny Thu with N winds
• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell for Fri/Sat with unknown winds

Recap

It was the exposed beaches time to shine yesterday with improving surf and conditions as the swell eased and tide filled in during the morning. This morning there’s nothing left in the tank with tiny surf west of Melbourne and fading 2ft+ leftovers to the east as winds strengthen from the north.

Great surf yesterday

This weekend and next week (Oct 5 - 11)

The coming weekend will offer a contrast of surf.

Tomorrow looks flat under a fresh N/NW-NW tending weak W/SW breeze, while Sunday should see building levels of mid-period W/SW swell energy with a fresh W/NW breeze, easing and tending more W-W/SW for a period during the afternoon but then back W/NW later.

An initial increase in W/SW swell energy is being generated by a healthy frontal system passing under Western Australia, with a fetch of strong W/SW winds due to kick up a 3ft wave into the afternoon on the Surf Coast (smaller 1-2ft early) with the Mornington Peninsula due to reach 4-5ft+.

A secondary front moving in during the day Sunday should help kick wave heights a little above that + range on the Surf Coast into the afternoon, with both easing Monday from 3ft and 4-5ft+ respectively.

A third frontal system moving through, under the country on the weekend should then produce another pulse of W/SW swell for Tuesday morning, with sets to 3ft continuing on the Surf Coast magnets, 4-5ft to the east, easing through the day.

Local winds will only be favourable for the Surf Coast Monday morning with a NW offshore shifting strong SW into the afternoon and then S’ly on Tuesday.

This will be thanks to the third swell generating front spawning into a low once passing across Tasmania and then projecting north up into the Tasman Sea.

This also looks to generate some localised S/SW swell for Wednesday but to no major size. The Surf Coast only looks to come in at 2ft with 3ft to possibly 4ft sets to the east.

Conditions should improve Wednesday as the low clears east, bringing variable NE offshores ahead of fresh SE sea breezes, clean Thursday but tiny.

Into Friday and the weekend, some new long-range W/SW groundswell is due, generated by a decent frontal progression firing up to the south-west of Western Australia early next week.

It looks moderate in size but local winds are unknown thanks to divergence surrounding a mid-latitude low moving in from the west. Check back next week for a clearer idea on the local winds and expected size. Have a great weekend!