Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday September 25th)

Best Days: Friday morning to the east, Saturday exposed beaches, Monday morning for the keen Surf Coast, Wednesday morning and Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized spike of S/SW swell this afternoon, easing rapidly tomorrow with strong S-S/SE winds
• Small-mod sized mid-period S/SW swell for Fri AM, easing during the day with variable winds (tending N/NE to the east) ahead of sea breezes
• Easing surf Sat with freshening N/NE winds
• Smaller Sun with strong N tending NW winds
• Late increase in mid-period W/SW swell Sun, peaking Mon AM with NW winds
• Moderate + sized W/SW groundswell building later Tue, peaking Wed with variable tending SE winds
• Easing swell Thu with local offshore winds ahead of sea breezes

Recap

Following Monday’s epic day of waves, yesterday morning continued to pump with clean conditions across all locations as a large, reinforcing W/SW groundswell continued to provide 6-8ft surf on the Surf Coast, 8ft or so to the east.

The swell slowly eased into the afternoon as winds went a little funky, while this morning we’ve got half the size and light winds ahead of a trough and strong S’ly change (looks like it just hit the Surf Coast).

This week and next (Sep 26 - Oct 4)

At the base of today’s trough is a strong, intense low and this has produced a spike in S/SW groundswell for later today to what looks to be 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ sets to the east, easing rapidly tomorrow.

The local winds will make a mess of it though, with strong S-S/SE breezes due across all locations, easing later and tending variable N/NE to the east on Friday morning.

This will be along with a secondary pulse of mid-period S/SW swell, generated behind the strong, tight low, with a healthy fetch of strong S/SW winds due to be projected towards us today.

Fun 3ft+ sets are due on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft waves to the east in the morning, easing into the afternoon as S/SE-SE sea breezes kick in.

Saturday looks clean all day across the beaches with a freshening N/NE breeze but smaller, fading swell from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east.

Sunday will start small under strong N winds but another tight low is due to form and project a very short-lived fetch of W/SW winds towards us through the day, generating a small spike of mid-period swell for Monday morning.

The Surf Coast looks to only come in at 2-3ft, easing through the day with larger surf to the east but with a general NW flow.

Of greater significance is a stronger mid-latitude frontal progression projecting up and under the Bight from Sunday through early next week. The overall structure looks a bit disjointed but it should still produce a moderate + sized W/SW groundswell for later Tuesday but more so Wednesday morning.

At this early stage the Surf Coast looks to come in around 4-5ft with 6-8ft sets to the east though winds are a touch dicey and most likely variable Wednesday morning following a strong change Tuesday, leaving lots of leftover lump.

Thursday might be better with a more groomed offshore and easing swell but check back here on Friday for the latest.