Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday September 23rd)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow, early Wednesday Surf Coast, Friday morning for the keen on the beaches, Saturday exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large SW groundswell today with strong NW tending W/NW winds ahead of a late S/SW change
• Easing SW groundswell tomorrow with a large W/SW groundswell also in the mix, also easing
• Light, local offshore winds (N/NW to the west, N/NE to the east) variable into the PM
• Smaller Wed with early W/NW tending strong S/SW winds
• Moderate + sized SW groundswell for Wed PM, easing Thu with strong S winds
• Small-mod sized mid-period S/SW swell Fri with E-E/NE tending SE winds
• Easing swell Sat with N/NE tending E/NE winds

Recap

Well, what can one say? It’s been absolutely pumping across the Surf Coast and other selected spots since Friday afternoon when the long-period energy filled in offering large, clean, powerful surf that was still in the 8ft range Saturday morning.

The swell eased through the day with Sunday coming in more around 4-6ft, but today we’ve got our secondary large pulse of large SW groundswell in the water with clean surf pulsing back to 8ft on the Surf Coast again. Quite a remarkable run of swell that puts winter in the distant past.

This swell should hold most of the day as winds shift more W/NW and then slip S/SW into the late afternoon.

New, large SW groundswell this morning

This week and weekend (Sep 24 - 29)

Looking at the period ahead and it’s nowhere near as active and as favourable as what we're currently experiencing.

Today’s large SW groundswell which was generated by a strong polar low projecting a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds towards us over the weekend will ease tomorrow.

The large, reinforcing W/SW groundswell due for tomorrow morning, generated by a trailing fetch of W/NW gales has been downgraded slightly with the structure and strength of this trailing system being a touch weaker.

With this we can expect the current groundswell to likely be more dominant, mixed in with some slightly smaller W/SW groundswell energy.

Easing surf from the 6ft+ range is due on the Surf Coast (8ft sets still a good chance), 8ft+ to the east along with light, local offshore winds that look to tend variable across both regions, maybe tending a little east on the Surf Coast.

Wednesday morning looks smaller and there should be a window of W/NW winds at dawn before a trough brings a strong S/SW change, persisting Thursday out of the S’th.

Swell wise, a small but strong low forming directly west of Tasmania tomorrow evening should generate a moderate + sized spike of SW groundswell for Wednesday afternoon, easing quickly Thursday but with those poor conditions.

A secondary pulse of mid-period S/SW swell is due on Friday as winds ease and likely tend light E-E/NE across most locations.

The source will be a weak polar front projecting up behind tomorrow evening’s low, with some fun 3ft+ sets due across the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east.

Saturday looks cleaner and better but with smaller, easing surf from 2ft and 3-4ft respectively.

We’re then looking at a smaller, slower run of swell into the start of October, but check back here during the week for more on this.