Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday September 20th)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large, powerful SW groundswell building today, peaking later and into the evening, easing slowly tomorrow and temporary smaller Sun AM
• Fresh, gusty W/NW winds tomorrow, strengthening through the day
• Fresh to strong W/NW winds Sun with a PM increase in mod-large mid-period W/SW swell
• Large SW groundswell filling in Mon (possibly under sized early) with fresh but easing W/NW winds, tending W/SW-SW later PM
• Large reinforcing W/SW groundswell Tue AM, easing through the day with N/NW-N winds to the west, N/NE-N to the east and strong at times through the day
• Easing swell Wed with a strong S/SW-SW change moving in at dawn
• Easing swell Thu with S-S/SE winds

Recap

Yesterday continued in the fun 4ft range across the Surf Coast with 6ft surf to the east, best through the morning before winds really came up strong from the west into the afternoon.

Today we’ve got our large SW groundswell filling in with sets already to 8ft across Bells/Winki under a moderate to fresh offshore wind.

The groundswell component of this swell is due to peak this afternoon with it having quite a bit of longevity, holding well into tomorrow morning. More on this below.

Large, clean surf this morning

This weekend and next week (Sep 21 - 27)

Today’s large increase in mid-period energy followed by groundwell was generated throughout this week by a strong polar low that projected up slowly towards us, generating severe-gale W/SW winds.

The elongated nature of the system will result in the swell still coming in large tomorrow morning as it eases, with 8ft sets across the Surf Coast magnets early, 10ft to the east along with some smaller, reinforcing mid-period W/SW energy.

Fresh, gusty W/NW winds are due to strengthen through the day tomorrow, favouring the Surf Coast and other protected spots, with Sunday morning seeing fresh to strong W/NW winds all day as the swell settles back to 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east.

The low point in swell will only be temporary, with building levels of mid-period W/SW energy again due into Sunday afternoon as the next swell generating low moves in. More consistent sets to 6ft are likely by dark again on the Surf Coast, but come Monday, a larger SW groundswell will be in the water, generated by another great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds being projected towards us.

Building surf to 6-8ft is due through Monday on the Surf Coast (possibly a touch undersized early), while a secondary, mid-latitude storm racing in towards us on Sunday/Monday should produce a secondary pulse of reinforcing W/SW groundswell Tuesday morning to a similar size, easing into the afternoon.

Locations to the east should come in at 8-10ft at the peak Monday, similar Tuesday morning and winds will ease a touch but remain fresh from the W/NW on Monday morning, easing and shifting W/SW-SW later afternoon, with Tuesday seeing local offshore winds from the N/NW to the west and N/NE to the east, strengthening a little but holding into the afternoon.

This should open up plenty of opportunities for the experienced with the large swell Tuesday morning.

By Wednesday the run will be done, with a trough due to bring a strong S/SW change around dawn, swinging S-S/SE on Thursday as a high moves in and then likely back NE on Friday with moderate amounts of swell. We’ll have a closer look at this on Friday, but in the meantime, make the most of this large swell!