Excellent spring outlook
Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday September 18th)
Best Days: Today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday morning, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday morning
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Moderate + sized mid-period SW swell peaking this afternoon with W/NW winds
- Temp drop in swell tomorrow AM ahead of building mid-period energy later
- Strengthening NW tending W/NW winds tomorrow
- Large, powerful SW groundswell building Fri, peaking later and into the evening, easing slowly Sat
- Fresh to at times strong W/NW-NW winds Fri and Sat
- Strong W/NW-W tending W/SW winds Sun
- Large SW groundswell for Mon with fresh N/NW tending NW winds
- Larger W/SW-SW groundswell Tue with N/NW tending E/NE winds to the east, S to the west
- Easing swell Wed with strong W/NW tending SW winds
- Strong S/SW winds Thu, S/SE Fri
Recap
Yesterday started a bit lumpy with surf in the 4ft range across the Surf Coast, but a freshening W/NW offshore ironed out the bumps and lumps through the day creating improving surf into the afternoon.
Today, our close-range mid-period swell is in the water already with stacked lines to 4ft across the Surf Coast that look more like an East Coast trade-swell rather than Southern Ocean energy.
A peak should be seen through the day as winds shift W/NW.
Stacked to the horizon this morning
This week and weekend (Sep 19 - 22)
Today’s moderate + sized pulse of SW swell is due to peak through the afternoon, with it easing back in size tomorrow morning from 4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east under strengthening NW tending W/NW winds.
Now, into the afternoon, building levels of mid-period W/SW swell are due ahead of a larger, more significant SW groundswell into Friday.
The source of both these swells is a strengthening polar low that’s currently south of Western Australia, with it due to produce a great fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds while projecting slowly towards us over the coming days.
The size expected off this system has been upgraded a touch since Monday, with Friday due to see large levels of mid-period swell through the morning with longer period groundswell energy into the afternoon/evening.
The Surf Coast should build to the 8ft range on the magnets (rare bigger cleanup) with 10ft surf to the east, easing back slowly Saturday from 8ft (6-8ft mostly) and 8-10ft respectively west and east of Melbourne.
Fresh to strong W/NW winds will favour protected spots all day, with Sunday coming in a little smaller along with strong W-W/NW tending W/SW winds.
Moving into next week and we’ve got out secondary large swell producers on the cards, with another strong polar low due to develop south of Western Australia Friday night, projecting a tighter fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW-SW winds towards us with embedded storm force winds.
This will generate a large SW groundswell for Monday that looks to come in around the 5-6ft range on the Surf Coast, 8ft to the east, while a secondary stronger low rushing in quickly behind the first will generate a severe-gale to storm-force fetch of W’ly winds through the weekend.
This should produce a larger W/SW-SW groundswell for Tuesday to 8ft again on the Surf Coast with 10ft sets to the east.
Winds through this period look great with a fresh N/NW tending NW breeze Monday and then light N/NW tending NE winds to the east, with shallow sea breezes to the west.
Easing surf with strong W/NW tending SW winds are due on Wednesday, poor into the end of the week as a high moves in swinging winds from the S/SW to S/SE. More on this Friday.
Comments
was it me 4 weeks ago saying surfless coast? best start to spring for a very long time. Has been so long since we've had back to back sizable clean swells, and not just peaking for a day. Paddle fitness is finally recovering from that dull winter
Spring has sprung
Whispers of super bank forming between spring and collins street - just before this big swell! Compound lefts eat your heart out
it nice to get excited about surfing;)
I start cancer treatment on Monday.
Well enough to surf now but not once I dive into the chemo and radiotherapy pool.
This weekend is very likely the last surf for many many months.
Fair to say I'm frothing a wee bit more than usual for this approaching swell.
Sorry to hear Warri, but also on the plus side, as you've mentioned, you get to get a couple more cracks at some pumping surf.
Hope you score big time this weekend Warri and all the best for the treatment
go get 'em Warri!
Good luck with the treatment Warri. Hope you get some great waves to remember while you are dealing with the next few months. Dealt with cancer myself many years ago. Didn't have to do chemo etc, but the surgery kept me out for a fair while. There's likely to be a few dark days, but the thoughts of getting back in the water will help you get through. All the best.
All the best with it mate, hope you score a few this weekend!
Go well Warri, wishing you all the best through treatment, recovery and returning to surfing. Hope you get some waves this weekend that you can coast on the energy of for a long time after!
Goodluck with the treatment mate. Hope you score.
Hows the water temp down there at the moment? Bringing my daughter down for a surf trip mid October and need to know if we can get by with 3/2 or need to by some 4/3's. We are east coast so pretty soft once temp is less than 16.
13.2 atm.
I was thinking yesterday how cold it still is. I had some friends visit GF weekend last year and remember it being 15 odd?
Might be making that up but definitely was back in a 3/2 vs this year it hasn’t even crossed my mind.
Cheers thanks definitely sounds like 4/3 territory then. Up in Syd we have been nearly 20 degrees last couple days and thinking about putting the springy back on!
Weather wise: Anyone else noticed recent years of 'previous' seasons stuff overlapping with whats at hand. I.E. late summers, late winters, Autumns starting later minus the sun strength and temps etc? It can seem like the seasons typical patterns seems to be twisting into the following ones?