Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday September 4th)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday (afternoon to the east), Monday Surf Coast, Tuesday (afternoon to the east), exposed beaches Wednesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf tomorrow with strong N-N/NW winds (possibly N/NE into the PM across the MP)
• Inconsistent, moderate sized W/SW groundswell Fri with early strong N tending weaker NW winds
• Reinforcing moderate sized W/SW-SW swell Sat AM with W/NW-NW tending variable winds
• Temp low point Sun AM, with a building W/SW swell into the PM
• Strong N/NW tending NW winds Sun
• Mix of W/SW swells Mon AM, with some better mid-period swell into the PM and Tue AM
• W/NW winds Mon, W/NW tending variable Tue
• Easing surf Wed with N/NE winds
• S winds Thu and smaller

Recap

Our large, reinforcing W/SW swell came in nicely yesterday with 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets continuing across the Surf Coast magnets, while to the east it was large and onshore, best inside protected spots.

It was a little lumpy through the morning, cleaning up better across all locations into the afternoon.

This morning we’ve got less size but cleaner conditions across a wide variety of locations with sets still 4ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east. Winds will remain strong all day, tending a little more N/NW to the west into the afternoon.

Freight trains this morning

This week and next (Sep 5 - 13)

The current swell will ease back a little further into tomorrow, though reinforcing energy should maintain 3ft sets across the magnets on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft+ to the east. Winds will remain strong and from the N-N/NW tomorrow morning, easing off into the afternoon while possibly tending N/NE across the Mornington Peninsula. With this in mind, the afternoon surf looks decent on the exposed beaches to the east.

The only possible issue might be a new pulse of W/SW groundswell due later in the day ahead of a peak Friday.

This swell was generated by a tight but strong low moving in from the Indian Ocean on the backside of all the activity that kicked off last week.

It should boost the Surf Coast back to a slower 3-4ft on the magnets Friday, with 6ft surf to the east.

Winds will shift from an early strong N’ly to a weaker NW on Friday morning, freshening a little later.

The swell is due to hold 3-4ft across the Surf Coast magnets Saturday morning thanks to a small, tight low generating a healthy fetch of gales. W/NW-NW tending variable winds may open up options to the east into the afternoon.

A temporary low point in swell may be seen Sunday morning, but not below 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

Into the afternoon, a long-range, mid-period W/SW swell is due to build. This being generated by a broad but not overly well aimed mid-latitude frontal progression pushing up towards Western Australia.

Building sets to a better 3ft are due across the Surf Coast later, 4-5ft to the east under strong N/NW tending NW winds.

On the backside of the progression pushing towards Western Australia, a stronger and further south located front should generate a stronger fetch of near gale-force W/SW winds through our western swell window. The front will weaken on approach and move through Sunday evening.

The swell from this stronger front is due in Monday afternoon/Tuesday, with inconsistent 3-4ft surf due on the Surf Coast magnets, 5-6ft to the east. The morning on Monday looks to be a similar size but weaker with a mix of W/SW swells.

Winds will hold from the W/NW on Monday, with Tuesday seeing W/NW tending variable winds.

Wednesday looks best for the beaches with a morning N/NE, while a trough looks to bring a brief S’ly change Thursday with smaller surf.

Longer term the outlook looks a little more spring like but we’ll have a closer look at this on Friday.