Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday September 2nd)

Best Days: Tomorrow Surf Coast, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Monday morning next week

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large mid-period W/SW swell peaking tomorrow AM, easing into the PM, smaller Wed
• Gusty W/NW winds early tomorrow, easing during the day and moderate into the PM
• Strong N/NE tending N winds Wed
• Small-moderate sized W/SW swell for later Wed, peaking Thu with strong N/NW-N winds
• Inconsistent, moderate sized W/SW groundswell for later Thu, peaking Fri with strong N winds, easing and tending NW and then W/NW
• Small-mod sized W/SW swell for the weekend with W/NW ahead of sea breezes Sat, N/NW tending W/NW Sun
• Moderate sized mid-period W/SW swell Mon with W/NW tending SW winds

Recap

Windy. That was the take home point from the weekend. Windy and large. Saturday started off a bit raw with 4-6ft of swell and OK conditions across protected spots, but the afternoon saw larger, stronger levels of W/SW swell energy on the build as conditions remained windy and tricky but more lined up.

Yesterday saw the peak in swell energy with most spots coming in between 6-8ft, while Bells and Winki saw 10ft+ sets at times more so from mid-morning onwards. Strong to gale-force offshore winds made for a great spectacle but made it tricky for those out in the water with winds backing off later in the day as the swell settled more around 6-8ft.

This morning we’ve got a little less size and lumpy conditions with a W/SW change due into the afternoon along with some new mid-period energy.

Windy, 12ft cleanup yesterday morning

This week and weekend (Sep 3 - 8)

Today’s W/SW change and strong winds is linked to another strong frontal system moving through this afternoon and evening, though not to the intensity of the weekend’s systems.

It should still generate some large, mid-period W/SW swell for tomorrow morning coming in 6ft to occasionally 8ft across the Surf Coast magnets, 8ft+ to the east before easing into the afternoon.

Conditions will be great tomorrow as offshore winds ease out of the W/NW, fresh in the morning but only moderate into the afternoon.

Into Wednesday, smaller surf is due again with the Surf Coast easing back from the 4ft range, with surf in the 6ft range to the east.

Into the late afternoon and more so Thursday, some less consistent reinforcing W/SW swell is due, ahead of another inconsistent groundswell pulse for late Thursday and more so Friday.

The sources of these swells is trailing frontal activity to the south-west of Western Australia, with the strongest system today due to generate Friday’s pulse. A small fetch of gale to severe-gale should maintain inconsistent 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets Friday (a little smaller Thursday), 6ft to the east.

Coming back to the local winds and strengthening N/NE tending N winds will favour selected beaches on Wednesday with strong N/NW-N winds on Thursday.

Friday looks to see fresh to strong N winds again, but easing and tending more NW and then W/NW through the day. These strong north winds will be thanks to approaching fronts being deflected away to the south-east on approach, with small to moderate levels of mid-period W/SW swell generated in their wake for the weekend under W/NW winds. Surf in the 3ft range is likely on the Surf Coast with 4-6ft waves to the east.

A slightly stronger and closer (in proximity) frontal system looks to generate the best pulse for Monday (moderate in size) but we’ll have a closer look at this Wednesday.