Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday August 28th)

Best Days: Every day this period besides Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large W/SW swell building this afternoon, peaking tomorrow morning, easing into Fri
• Fresh NW-N/NW winds tomorrow, strong W/NW Fri
• Large, powerful W/SW groundswell building Sat, peaking overnight, easing Sun
• Large reinforcing W/SW groundswell for Sun PM and Mon AM
• Further large W/SW groundswell energy later Tue and Wed AM, easing Thu
• Strong W/NW tending NW winds Sat, strong NW tending W/NW Sun
• Strong W/NW winds early Mon, shifting W/SW then SW
• Moderate N/NW winds Tue
• Strong N-N/NW tending NW winds Wed, W/NW Thu

Recap

The surf was small and clean across the Surf Coast yesterday, mostly to 2ft with the odd bigger one around Barwon Heads, while to the east there were OK waves in the morning with the north wind and surf to 4ft.

Today, we’ve got a new W/SW groundswell in the water, but a localised, mid-period swell is overriding it, generated by strong frontal system pushing in through Bass Strait.

This is bringing strong winds but building surf with 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast this morning, 6ft+ to the east. We should see the swell building steadily towards 6ft+ later this afternoon on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ to the east as winds shift more W and remain strong.

This week and next (Aug 29 - Sep 6)

Here we go.

We’ve got an excellent run of surf on the cards, starting from today with all the activity that’s been focussed across the southern Indian Ocean finally being dragged east by a strong node of the Long Wave Trough.

Today’s initial frontal system is generating a great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds, with a peak in large W/SW groundswell due tomorrow morning to 6-8ft on the Surf Coast, 10ft to the east.

Winds will ease and shift more NW-N/NW tomorrow, being fresh all day creating excellent conditions across most breaks.

Into Friday the swell will be down to 3-4ft or so on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east under strong W/NW winds that will persist most of the day.

This will be ahead of the next swell generating system, that being a broad, southern ocean gyre with multiple frontal systems spinning around it from Friday through the weekend.

The first frontal system looks the strongest and most significant, with a fetch of severe-gale winds with embedded storm-force bursts due to project towards us through Friday and then across us Saturday.

A large, long-period W/SW groundswell is due from this front, building through Saturday, peaking overnight and easing Sunday.

We’ll then see a secondary, more zonal fetch of severe-gale W’ly winds generating a large, reinforcing groundswell for later Sunday and more so Monday morning.

Size wise, the Surf Coast looks to build to 8-10ft later Saturday, holding this size Sunday on the magnets with 8ft surf continuing Monday.

To the east it’ll be bigger and only surfable inside protected coves.

During this entire swell episode expect various ebbs and pulses but in general it’ll be large and only for the very experienced.

Local winds on the weekend will favour protected spots, and be strong from the W/NW tending NW on Saturday with strong NW tending W/NW winds through Sunday.

Monday still looks the rawest with early strong W/NW winds shifting W/SW through the morning and SW into the afternoon as another, weaker swell generating front moves through.

This will maintain large surf into Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning, while one final pulse of groundswell is due later Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

The source will be a trailing but strong frontal system moving under the country early next week, generating a fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds.

6ft+ sets are likely to persist across the Surf Coast later Tuesday and early Wednesday, easing thereafter.

Winds on Tuesday will tip back N/NW and ease back to the moderate range, with Wednesday seeing stronger N-N/NW tending NW winds.

Looking at the end of the week and moderate sized surf is still due with favourable winds for the Surf Coast Thursday, more exposed breaks next Friday. More on this in the next update.