Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday August 7th)

Best Days: Every day this period Surf Coast, to the east tomorrow, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swell Thu with strong N/NE tending N winds
• Small-mod sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Fri PM, peaking later with NW-N/NW tending variable winds (W/NW PI)
• Slightly better W/SW swell Sat with N/NW tending variable winds (N/NE on the MP)
• Slowly easing swell Sun with N/NW tending variable NE winds
• Smaller Mon with N/NE winds
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Tue, peaking Wed with N/NE winds Tue, N/NW tending NE Wed

Recap

Our good pulse of SW swell came in nicely yesterday with 3ft+ waves on the Surf Coast with clean conditions all day, a little wind affected to the east and a bit big for the exposed beaches.

Today we’ve got a reinforcing pulse of closer-range W/SW swell that was generated by a front moving through yesterday. It’s holding 3ft with great conditions on the Surf Coast, with winds going variable into the mid-late afternoon, lighter N to the east.

This week and next (Aug 8 - 16)

As touched on in Monday’s notes, we’ve got a ton of frontal activity moving in through our medium range swell window but it’ll be all west in nature and inconsistent across the Surf Coast along with a shaving in size.

Firstly, today’s energy will ease tomorrow and strengthening N/NE tending N winds will favour the exposed beaches, more so in the morning with the afternoon becoming wind affected.

Into Friday, our first pulse of tricky W/SW swell is due, generated by a fetch of strong to near gale-force W/NW winds under Western Australia yesterday afternoon and evening. This will then be followed by a weaker but broader front today, generating W’ly winds that will be better aligned in our swell window.

Two separate pulses of W/SW swell are due, the first for Friday with a secondary pulse for Saturday.

Building sets to 2-3ft are due on the Surf Coast later Friday (inconsistent), 4-5ft+ to the east with Saturday coming in at a more consistent 3ft on the Surf Coast (rare bigger one magnets), 5-6ft to the east.

Local winds on Friday look N/NW-NW tending variable into the afternoon (possibly W/NW Phillip Island), with Saturday seeing N/NW tending variable winds (N/NE on the Mornington Peninsula).

The easing trend through Sunday looks slow with similar sized sets due to Saturday expected across both region, and a N/NW tending variable NE breeze should open up options across both coasts during the day.

Monday looks a bit smaller and slower but with favourable N/NE winds for exposed breaks, with the next pulse of groundswell due to build Tuesday and peak Wednesday.

This swell looks to be the least reliable of the coming period, generated high up in the Indian Ocean which will result in a big loss of consistency and size once it arrives across our region. Winds look favourable for exposed breaks with this swell and out of the north but we’ll review this Friday.