Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday July 29th)

Best Days: Exposed beaches later tomorrow and Wednesday morning, Thursday, Friday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading surf tomorrow with N/NE tending variable winds
• Small pulse of W swell later tomorrow, easing Wed with E/NE tending SE winds
• Moderate + sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Thu, easing later
• E/NE-NE winds Thu, holding from the NE into the PM
• Easing swell Fri with strengthening N/NE winds
• Smaller Sat with gusty N tending NW winds
• Small W swell Sun with W/NW winds

Recap

Our tricky pulse of close-range W’ly swell came in at a slow but clean 3ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets Saturday, while a strong onshore change was in from about dawn yesterday, writing off the surf from the get go. To the east conditions were average.

This morning we’ve got smaller, lumpy leftovers as the weekend’s swell continues to fade, with some OK waves for the keen to the east (best across PI).

This week and weekend (Jul 30 - Aug 4)

These notes will be brief today as Steve covers the Olympic surfing event.

The current swell will continue to ease, bottoming out tomorrow as a N/NE offshore creates clean conditions on the exposed beaches. Don’t expect much change from 2ft with tiny waves on the Surf Coast.

Later in the day but more so Wednesday, our small pulse of W/SW swell is due but it’s unlikely to offer much size on the Surf Coast, with the exposed beaches fairing best again.

The source was a poorly aligned frontal system drifting south-east from the WA region, with 1-2ft sets due late tomorrow and Wednesday morning on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east and a morning E/NE breeze. It’s worth noting there might also be some sneaky E/SE-SE groundswell in the water Wednesday from the strong low in the Tasman.

Of greater significance is the moderate + sized pulse of W/SW groundswell for Thursday.

The strong frontal progression linked to it is currently to the south-west of Western Australia, with a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds being projected through our western swell window.

The size and strength of the progression is great but the alignment in our swell window less than ideal.

With this we can expect it to be inconsistent on the Surf Coast, but 3-4ft surf is generally expected with the possible 5ft’er on the magnets, 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east. A peak is due through the morning, easing slowly during the afternoon and more so into Friday.

Now winds were a little unknown last week and we’ve got some clarity with a moderate E/NE-NE breeze due, holding from the NE into the afternoon, with Friday seeing stronger N/NE-NE winds.

This will favour more exposed breaks and add lots of bumps and chops to the Surf Coast.

The weekend looks more miss than hit with the swell bottoming out on Saturday under gusty N tending NW winds.

Come Sunday, another small and tricky pulse of W’ly swell is due, generated by a weaker frontal system on the backside of the strong storm currently off WA. It’ll be small and inconsistent with it lucky to top 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east but with W/NW winds.

Longer term the Indian Ocean remains active but closer to us, it’s a bit quieter. Therefore with this try and make the most of the coming swell on Thursday.