Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday July 1st)

Best Days: Beaches tomorrow morning, selected spots Wednesday morning, Saturday morning selected spots, Sunday, exposed beaches Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell for this afternoon and tomorrow AM, easing
• Light N/NE winds east of Melbourne tomorrow AM, possibly reaching BH, S/SE to the west
• Easing swell Wed with E-E/NE tending fresh SE winds
• Inconsistent, moderate sized W/SW groundswell building Thu, peaking Fri AM with fresh E-E/SE winds, strengthening from the E/SE Thu, S/SE-SE Fri
• Stronger, inconsistent W/SW-SW groundswell for Fri PM and more so Sat with E/NE-NE tending SE winds
• Easing swell Sun with N/NE tending E/NE winds
• Smaller Mon with N/NE-NE winds
• Possible trough and S winds Tue, back to the N/NE Wed

Recap

Saturday provided small, clean surf to 2ft across the Surf Coast with an inconsistent SW groundswell while locations to the east were bumpy and average.

Our deepening trough come low moving in from the west brought with it a moderate sized increase in local swell yesterday but with poor conditions across all locations, easing back today but with lingering southerly winds.

This week and weekend (Jul 2 - 6)

Following yesterday’s trough/low which has continued to travel east across to New Zealand, we’re looking at a very un-winter like pattern for the first two weeks of July.

This is thanks to a significant upper level blocking pattern setting up immediately west of us, deflecting any major frontal systems away from us. Instead we’ll see high pressure dominate the westerly storm track, while at the same time healthy looking fronts fire up in our far swell window, south of the Indian Ocean.

Firstly, over the coming days we’re set to see a signifcant high pressure cell slowly move in (possibly reaching 1045hPa), resulting in winds improving east of Melbourne tomorrow, shifting N/NE to the east while lingering from the S/SE on the Surf Coast. We may see winds go variable offshore around Barwon Heads in the morning but don count on it.

Swell wise, our pulse of S/SW swell energy from polar frontal activity at the base of the trough that moved through yesterday should generate some better size this afternoon and tomorrow morning, coming in at 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 4-5ft+ to the east, backing off slowly through tomorrow.

Wednesday will become smaller and conditions a little trickier with an E’ly morning breeze that will more than likely tend E/NE to the east across most locations ahead of fresh SE sea breezes.

Into the end of the week, we’ll see the high sit just west of us, resulting in less favourable, fresh E/SE-E winds during the morning Thursday, stronger into the afternoon and then lingering SE tending S/SE winds through Friday.

This will be with our first pulses of inconsistent W/SW groundswell from the Indian Ocean.

The progression generating these swells has been downgraded a little and it looks like we’ll be seeing inconsistent levels of energy for the Surf Coast only coming in around the 3ft range from Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, with 4-6ft surf to the east.

The strongest pulse of energy from a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds moving in and under Western Australia, towards the polar shelf over the coming days should come in Friday afternoon and Saturday to a better 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east. There’s the chance for the rare bigger one at times Saturday from poorly aligned by stronger NW winds towards the polar shelf but they’ll be inconsistent.

Winds should start to improve again on the weekend, tending E/NE-NE on Saturday morning ahead of sea breezes with Sunday morning offering N/NE offshores as the swell starts to ease.

Next week looks to then be dominated by winds from the north-eastern quadrant (besides Tuesday) with easing levels of swell that will bottom out mid-late week. We may see some new mid-period W/SW swell late week but check back here on Wednesday for the latest.