Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday June 28th)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow for the keen in the morning, selected locations to the east from Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, inconsistent SW groundswell tomorrow with fresh to strong N/NW tending W/NW then W/SW winds later
• Strong S/SW winds Sun with a moderate sized increase in loew quality S/SW swells, easing Mon
• Gusty S-S/SE winds Mon
• Moderate sized S/SW groundswell for later Mon, easing Tue with E/SE-SE winds (more E from PI east)
• Easing swell Wed with E/SE-SE winds (more E from PI east)
• Moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswells from Thu to Sat with winds unknown
• Likely E/SE-SE winds Thu AM, variable Fri AM and then S to follow

Recap

Some small but fun W/SW swell filled in through yesterday, reaching 2ft+ across the Surf Coast into the afternoon and 4ft to the east as winds favoured protected spots to the west.

This morning the swell is holding a similar size with a bit more north in the wind, opening up better options across the beaches.

This weekend and next week (Jun 29 - Jul 5)

The weekend ahead looks fairly average for surf now with a small, background SW groundswell that’s already pinged on the Cape Sorell wave buoy, expected to offer infrequent 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft sets to the east tomorrow. 

Winds will be fresh to strong from the N/NW tomorrow morning, shifting W/NW and then W/SW later as a deepening mid-latitude trough/ come low pushes in from the east.

This low has now been fast forwarded and arrives across us more as a trough, with Sunday now set to see strong S/SW-S winds and the swell generating potential has been downgraded.

It looks like we’ll see an increase in local mid-period energy and windswell, though lower in quality, spiking to 4ft or so on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east, easing back through Monday with fresh S-S/SE winds.

Tuesday looks like another lay day for most spots as wind shift E/SE-SE with some OK S/SW groundswell, generated by a healthy polar frontal system at the base of the trough moving through on the weekend.

The Surf Coast should see a spike in swell to 3-4ft later Monday, easing Tuesday with easing 4-5ft+ sets to the east.

Wednesday will become smaller as winds persist from the E/SE-E, similar Thursday.

As touched on in Wednesday’s notes, some inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell is due later week, the first for Thursday likely followed by some stronger energy Friday/Saturday.

This will be generated by a strong Southern Ocean frontal progression pushing across the Heard Island region from today through the weekend and further east, towards Western Australia during next week.

Moderate levels of swell are due, likely in the 3-4ft range across the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east, though local winds are still undecided. This is thanks to troughiness lingering in the region later in the week so check back here on Monday for a clearer idea on the timing, sized and local winds with this coming swell. Have a great weekend!