Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday June 5th)

Best Days: No good days

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swell tomorrow with moderate to fresh E/SE-SE winds
• Small, inconsistent mix of W/SW groundswells Fri PM, easing Sat
• Moderate E/SE-SE winds Fri, freshening from the S/SE into the PM
• Light S winds Sat AM, freshening from the SW into the PM
• Small mid-period W/SW swell Sun with W/NW tending S winds mid-AM
• Easing swell Mon with W/NW tending SW winds

Recap

Conditions were clean all day yesterday on the Surf Coast and our inconsistent, long-range W/SW groundswell built through the day, reaching 3ft into the afternoon on the magnets.

This morning we’ve got the swell hanging in but easing across the region and a trough is due to bring a S’ly change later morning to the Surf Coast. It’s already onshore to the east and the surf is lumpier and easing from 2-3ft to the west of Melbourne and 4ft or so to the east.

New swell yesterday afternoon

This week and next (Jun 6 - 14)

The coming period will be plagued by average winds thanks to the trough that’s currently in the region moving this way and that.

There’s no major swells to spoil in any case but it will be a pain, with the exposed beaches not really expected to see a true offshore at all with the smaller run of swell.

Looking at tomorrow, and the current swell will continue to ease and the trough will bring moderate to fresh E/SE-SE winds, creating average conditions.

A mix of inconsistent W/SW groundswells are then due to fill in Friday, generated by weaker, more distant frontal activity compared to the storm linked to the current swell.

With this in mind, the Surf Coast looks to build to a slow 2ft+ Friday afternoon, easing from a similar size Saturday with 4ft sets to the east.

We’ll unfortunately see moderate, lingering E/SE-SE winds on Friday morning, freshening from the S/SE into the afternoon, with Saturday morning looking to be the best chance for a surf as winds tend light and possibly variable S’th. It won’t be perfect but likely the best of the coming days.

Into Sunday, we should see early W/NW winds across the region before troughiness brings another S/SW change mid-morning.

Swell wise our small pulse of mid-period W/SW energy from a mid-latitude low dipping south-east, under Western Australia looks dicey.

With the south-east track and lack of length and width to the fetch, only a small pulse of energy is due through the day Sunday, coming in at 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east.

Monday morning will become cleaner as winds tip back to the W/NW but with fading 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast.

All in all a forgettable period.

Looking at the end of the week and the models diverge regarding the merging of a mid-latitude trough and polar low with GFS going much stronger than EC which whisks it by rather quickly. Regardless, any swell looks to be accompanied by strong onshore winds and the longer term outlook then remains small but with favourable north-east winds for exposed breaks.