Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday May 31st)

Best Days: Later today, tomorrow, Monday exposed beaches, Friday exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized spike in W/SW swell later today with W/NW winds, easing tomorrow with W/NW winds, tending light-mod S into the PM
• Smaller Sun with increasing S/SE winds
• Small Mon with E/NE tending N/NE then N/NW winds
• Possible small spike of W/SW groundswell Mon PM, easing Tue with W/NW tending SW winds
• Inconsistent, moderate sized W/SW groundswell Tue PM, easing Wed with early W/SW tending mod-fresh S/SW winds
• S winds Thu, with an inconsistent SW groundswell for Fri with variable offshore tending SE winds

Recap

Clean conditions with good, easing levels of W/SW groundswell from Wednesday, down from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

The swell has bottomed out this morning but a rapid jump in close-range W/SW swell is due this afternoon, outlined in more detail below.

This weekend and next week (Jun 1 - 7)

A strong mid-latitude low is currently barreling in from the west and with it, we’re due to see a fetch of W/SW gales pushing in from the west, generating a strong swell front that’s due to arrive into this afternoon. The Cape Sorell wave buoy is on the way up (below left) and we should see a moderate + sized pulse of W/SW swell later afternoon, reaching 4-5ft on dark on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east as winds shift W/NW.

The swell will ease through tomorrow back from 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east as winds remain light from the W/NW, shifting S’ly into the afternoon but only light to moderate in strength.

This is thanks to the trough that was expected to bring a change now looking to strengthen more into the evening, bringing strengthening S/SE winds on Sunday with the size dropping away more.

We should see the trough drifting back to the west through Monday and this will swing winds E/NE to N/NE and then N/NW but swell wise, we’ve got nothing really of size due with small 1-2ft leftovers on the Surf Coast, 2-3ft to the east. There’s a chance for a small flukey pulse of new W/SW swell into the afternoon but don’t count on it, easing Tuesday with W/NW tending SW winds as the trough drifts back east across us.

This will spoil a new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell that’s due to build into Tuesday afternoon, peaking later and then easing Wednesday.

Winds look to remain moderate to fresh from the S/SW, possibly W/SW for a short period early in the morning but overall not worth chasing hard.

Looking at the swell and it’s being generated by a strong progression of mid-latitude frontal systems pushing up towards Western Australia in our medium to long-range swell window.

With this we’re only expecting moderate sized surf with inconsistent sets building to 3ft into the afternoon on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east, then easing Wednesday from a similar size.

Unfortunately it looks like winds will linger out of the S’th as the swell eases Thursday, back offshore Friday with a longer-range, less consistent and small W/SW groundswell likely.

Beyond this the outlook remains slow but check back here on Monday for the latest. Have a great weekend!