Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday May 13th)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday morning, Saturday, Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, weak W/SW swell tomorrow with W/NW tending W/SW-SW winds
• Slightly better W/SW swell for Wed with NW tending W/NW winds, S/SW later
• Moderate + sized SW groundswell building Thu with N/NW tending W/NW winds
• Easing swell into Fri AM, ahead of a secondary slightly stronger pulse of SW groundswell into the PM and Sat AM
• Moderate W/NW tending fresher SW winds late AM Fri, S/SW into the PM
• Light S/SW winds Sat (likely W/NW early Surf Coast)
• Moderate + sized S/SW swell building Sun PM, easing Mon
• Moderate W/NW tending fresh SW-S/SW winds Sun, moderate S/SW Mon

Recap

A mix of easing S/SW groundswell and localised SE windswell on Saturday, fading further into yesterday. Locations east of Melbourne performed best but when cleanest yesterday, back to small and weak. The aurora australis put on a better show into Saturday evening, wowing those down on the coast.

This week and weekend (Apr 14 - 19)

Following the run of east winds and S/SW swells, there is a change in patterns afoot as the strong, dominating high pressure linked to last couple of weeks of waves is now moving off to the east, replaced by relatively weak frontal activity under the country.

It’s this activity which will generate some weak W/SW swell over the coming days, with stronger fronts due to fire up from tomorrow through the rest of the week, generating a bit more size through Thursday onwards. Winds will become a slight issue, though we’ll discuss this in more detail below.

The current shift in winds is thanks to a weak front moving in and this looks to generate a weak 2ft or so of swell for the Surf Coast tomorrow with 4ft surf to the east with a light to moderate W/NW tending W/SW-SW breeze.

A secondary pulse of mid-period W/SW swell is due Wednesday, likely coming in a little stronger than tomorrow’s with 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ waves to the east along with a NW tending W/NW breeze, shifting S/SW later.

Of greater importance is the moderate + sized SW groundswell for Thursday, with it being generated by the first of the more significant storms passing under the country tomorrow. A great fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds, followed by post-frontal W/SW winds of similar strength should generate a prolonged swell through Thursday and Friday.

The Surf Coast should build to 4-5ft through Thursday with 6ft+ sets to the east, easing back temporarily from the 4ft range to the west and 6ft respectively to the east on Friday morning.

Into the afternoon, our next pulse of SW swell is due, generated by a secondary similar structured frontal system moving in under the country Wednesday and Thursday.

It could be a touch stronger, and while working on an active sea state we will likely see 4-5ft+ sets on the Surf Coast later Friday afternoon and early Saturday with 6ft to possibly 8ft sets to the east.

Looking at the local winds and a N/NW offshore will only shift light W/NW into the afternoon on Thursday, creating great conditions with Friday due to see morning W/NW winds, shifting SW later morning and then S/SW into the afternoon in the wake of the second swell generating front.

Saturday looks dicey with lingering S/SW winds in the wake of Friday’s change, but without any major strength conditions should be OK. With this the Surf Coast will likely see an early W/NW breeze.

A third system is expected to follow a similar track to the first two through Friday and Saturday, with another pulse of moderate + sized pulse of swell due into Sunday afternoon/Monday morning but with less favourable winds, swinging from W/NW to S/SW on Sunday and then moderate S/SW Monday.

We’ll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.