Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday May 10th)

Best Days: Today on the beaches, selected spots tomorrow, Friday morning Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller Fri AM, ahead of another late pulse of S/SW groundswell, peaking tomorrow AM, easing steadily into the PM
• Strong E/SE-E winds tomorrow
• SE windswell for Sat, easing Sun with small levels of fading S/SW swell
• Fresh E/NE tending weaker NE then tending variable winds Sun
• Small, weak W/SW swell Tue PM with W/NW tending SW winds
• Weak, building W/SW swell Wed with NW tending W/NW winds
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Thu with moderate S/SW winds, easing Fri with W/NW winds

Recap

East winds and easing levels of S/SW groundswell through yesterday from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast magnets when the tide moved in and 4-5ft to the east. This morning the swell is smaller and best to the east again but the big morning low tides have caused issues.

The contributing factor is the high pressure sitting over the state, lowering the sea level more than normally seen.

This is called the inverse barometer effect and lowers the sea level 10cm for every increase in 10hPa of pressure. With a 1030hPa high sitting across us, the effect looks to be around 15-20cm of extra less water.

This weekend and next week (Apr 11 - 17)

Our second pulse of strong S/SW groundswell for this afternoon and tomorrow morning is on track, but while the polar frontal system linked to it was slightly stronger than the storm generating our mid-week swell, it was also faster moving.

This makes for a tricky forecast, but with satellite imagery showing a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds in our southern swell window, we should see some decent size pulsing later today before easing steadily through tomorrow.

It’ll be aimed mostly at the Surf Coast and unfortunately localised SE windswell will likely be more dominant in the water, but size wise, inconsistent 4ft on the magnets later today in the morning tomorrow, easing through the day and 5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula early, smaller across Phillip Island and fading quickly through the day.

Winds are due to be moderate from the E/NE-E/SE this afternoon as the swell builds, with tomorrow seeing stronger E/SE-E winds, kicking up the local SE windswell energy.

Into Sunday we’ve got an easing mix of S/SW groundswell and SE windswell, with the latter being more dominant on the Surf Coast under E/NE tending NE and then variable winds.

Fading, peaky 2ft waves are due on the Surf Coast with 2ft+ sets to the east.

A low point in swell is expected on Monday with our weak W/SW swell for Tuesday now looking a bit average.

The mid-latitude low linked to it looks to weaken into a trough on approach, bringing more south to north winds rather than west to east.

No major size is due at all with a possible 1-2ft wave into the afternoon on the Surf Coast, 3ft to the east but with W/NW tending SW winds.

Following this mid-latitude system, weak unconsolidated frontal activity will strength south of the Bight on Tuesday, with a good fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds due to generate a moderate sized, mid-period SW swell for Thursday.

Ahead of this Wednesday, some weaker W/SW energy will build under NW tending W/NW winds, but Thursday should come in at 3ft+ across the Surf Coast, peaking from late morning with 4-6ft sets to the east.

Unfortunately a trough associated with the swell generating front looks to clip us Thursday, bringing moderate S/SW winds, swinging back to the W/NW Friday but with easing 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast.

A secondary mid-latitude system is forecast to move in late week and bring some larger swell into next weekend but a following high looks to bring S’ly winds. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!