Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday April 29th)

Best Days: Selected spots Thursday and Friday mornings, exposed beaches from Tuesday next week

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell building today, holding tomorrow while tending S/SW, easing slowly into Wed PM
• Gusty but slowly easing S/SE winds tomorrow
• Mod-fresh E/SE winds Wed AM, stronger SE into the PM
• New mid-period S/SW swell for later Thiu and Fri AM, easing, smaller into the weekend
• Mod-fresh E/SE winds Thu (possibly tending E/NE to the east in the AM), strong SE into the PM
• Similar winds Fri, with a building SE windswell for the Surf Coast
• Strong E/SE tending SE winds Sat, weaker Sun
• Small-mod sized SE windswell for the Surf Coast Sat, easing Sun
• Inconsistent SW groundswell building Mon, easing Tue with E/NE-NE winds Tue AM

Recap

Following Friday's good swell, the weekend provided a slow downtrend in size but great conditions on the Surf Coast with clean 3-4ft waves Saturday, down to 3ft yesterday and a smaller 2ft this morning.

The drop this morning is only temporary with some new, moderate sized mid-period SW swell due to build as a front clips us, bringing fresh to strong SW-S/SW winds. More on this below.

This week and weekend (Apr 30 – May 5)

We've got plenty of swell due this week across the state but onshore winds will limit surfing options, initially south and then swinging more south-east mid-late week, possibly opening up a few options to the east for the savvy.

After a great run of surf last week, the storm track has now shifted further east, with high pressure sitting to our west. This looks to be the pattern for the coming week or so, with strengthening polar fronts due to fire up in our south-western and southern swell windows but with unfavourable winds from the south-eastern quadrant, wrapping anti-clockwise around the high.

Today's building swell has been generated by the first of these with a fetch of strong SW winds due to kick up 3-4ft of swell for the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets to the east, holding tomorrow around a similar size.

Unfortunately gusty S/SE winds will be seen tomorrow, in the wake of today's change with a shift to the E/SE on Wednesday morning, strengthening from the SE through the day.

Size wise, the swell looks to ease a little through Wednesday from 3-4ft and 4-6ft respectively.

A temporary low point in swell is due Thursday morning, though not below 3ft to the west and 4-5ft on the sets to the east, and winds look to possibly improve a little to the east. Morning E/SE winds may tip E/NE for a period later morning before shifting back SE through the afternoon.

Our next pulse of swell is due to arrive into the afternoon, generated by a fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW tending W winds tracking in and along the polar shelf today and tomorrow.

The swell looks similar to the coming days, likely peaking to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast later Thursday and Friday morning with 4-6ft sets to the east, easing into Friday afternoon and further Saturday.

Strong E/SE-E winds will blow on Friday, favouring some spots to the east, while kicking up some additional SE windswell on the Surf Coast.

Through the weekend strong E/SE-SE winds look to persist both Saturday and Sunday as the swell from the Southern Ocean continues to ease. SE windswell will become more dominant on the Surf Coast and likely come in around 3ft or so Saturday, smaller Sunday.

Into next week, the surf looks generally on the small-moderate side of the coin, but winds should start to swing more E/NE-NE from Tuesday, favouring the beaches. This will be as the high pressure system to our west starts shift moving east, though there doesn't look to be anything too substantial to follow at this stage. More on this Wednesday.