Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday April 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong SW swell building Tues, easing Wed, favourable AM winds
• Average spell of waves thurs thru' Sun
• Strong series of new groundswells showing from next Mon, peaking Tues/Wed

Recap

Pumping waves over the weekend with good winds for the Surf Coast and 3-4ft surf Saturday building to 4-5ft on Sunday and then slowly easing from 3-4ft today. East of Melbourne has been bigger but generally the wrong size/wind combo for exposed spots, and undersized wave heights for sheltered locations. 

(Please note: FC Notes will be variable in delivery this week as Craig is on paternity leave and Steve is covering Margs)

This week (Apr 16 - 19)

No major changes to Craig’s notes from Friday - we’ve got a strong SW groundswell inbound tomorrow, that will lift wave heights in Torquay up into the 5-6ft range, with 8ft sets east of Melbourne. The swell may not be quite in at dawn so expect slightly undersized surf early on, peaking into the afternoon. 

A weak synoptic flow will bring about light morning offshores from the W/NW though moderate S/SW winds are likely from late morning/lunchtime onwards. 

East of Mebourne will likely to be too big on the open beaches, and the morning will probably be undersized for protected spots (they should have options into the afternoon though). 

Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday with early light variable (tending offshore )winds ahead of light/mod onshore into the afternoon, and strong though easing swells, initially 5-6ft along the Surf Coast at first light but easing by a foot or two into the afternoon. 

Again, Wednesday looks to be too big for the open beaches east of Melbourne, but there should be waves inside sheltered bays and coves in the morning. 

A cold front will cross the coast on Thursday, bringing about a fresh westerly flow as wave heights continue to ease (there’s a brief chance for an early W/NW period around dawn but it won’t last long). This front will only kick up right on our doorstep, so it won’t have generated any new swell - but the parent low well to the south will generate some small, sideband energy in the days prior (i.e. right now, way out near Heard Island) that’ll spread back up into the Victorian coast on Friday as local winds ease.

However, winds are also expected to veer to the south in the wake of the associated fronts passing below Tasmanian longitudes, so any new increase in swell - which is not likely to be much - will be marred with poor surface conditions.

Therefore, aim for Tuesday/Wed for the best waves.

This weekend (Apr 20 - 21)

Average waves are expected this weekend with easing onshore Saturday and abating swells from whatever makes landfall on Friday.

Lumpy 3ft sets looks like the most likely option west of Melbourne, with poor surf east of Melbourne (too big and wobbly for the open beaches, too small for sheltered spots). Smaller surf is then expected on Sunday as winds veer around to the west.

There’ll be waves around the coast but there’s nothing worth pencilling into the diary. I’ll have more details on Wednesday.

Next week (April 22 onwards)

A powerful low/front sliding down the eastern flank of a LWT well to the west of WA from Wednesday thru’ Friday (this week) will set up the start of a decent groundswell run for next week.

The leading edge of the first pulse is due overnight Sunday, and it’ll be quite lengthy in period - but westerly in direction, so I’m not expecting a lot of size in Torquay on Monday, maybe some inconsistent 2-3ft sets. 

An impressive series off stronger, better aligned followup fronts behind this - from Friday thru’ Monday below the continent - will then generate much better surf for the region, building from late Monday through Tuesday and peaking Wednesday, pushing up into the 5-6ft range in Torquay. The parent storms may end up being capable of more size, however they’ll be tracking reasonably far north in latitude (than is ideal, for our swell window), so I’m going to shave off some size for now, and reevaluate over the coming days as the model guidance firms up.

So.. start putting aside some flexi time for next week, it’s looking like we’ve got some great winter swell patterns on the way. 

See you Wednesday!