Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 2nd)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large building mix of swells this afternoon and evening with strengthening SW winds
• Large, easing S/SW groundswell tomorrow with N-N/NE winds to the east, N/NW to the west, tending sea breezy ahead of a mid-late PM S/SW change
• Large SW groundswell building Sun, peaking through the late PM with light, local offshore winds, tending SE by later AM and freshening
• Mod-large, easing S/SW groundswell swell Mon with strong SW-S/SW winds
• Easing surf Tue with gusty S/SW winds
• Smaller Wed with mod-fresh S winds
• Small, easing surf Thu with E/SE-E winds

Recap

Super fun surf yesterday morning on the Surf Coast with our pulse of SW swell for later Wednesday, easing back from 3-4ft with a light offshore wind.

This morning the swell is smaller and lower quality with less favourable winds. The size should jack up rapidly through the day but with strong SW winds.

This weekend and next week (Feb 3 - 9)

Today's onshore change is linked to a strengthening frontal progression attached to a polar low, moving east under Tasmania today.

The frontal system is generating a great fetch of gale to near severe-gale SW winds through our southern swell window, following W/SW gales in our south-western swell window yesterday afternoon and evening.

Mid-period energy associated with the front is now building across the region, but a large, powerful S/SW groundswell will arrive from the stronger winds later this afternoon and evening, peaking overnight before easing tomorrow.

The Surf Coast should reach 6-8ft by dark today, with a gradual drop in size due tomorrow morning from a similar size, if not more 6ft with the rare 8ft'er on the high tide.

To the east large 8ft surf is due, easing through the day and winds will favour both locations with a light N/NW offshore on the Surf Coast, N/NE to the east. Winds look to go sea breezy on the Surf Coast into the early afternoon with winds possibly remaining favourable to the east, with a shallow S/SW change moving in by late afternoon.

As touched on in Wednesday's update, a temporary low point in swell is due Sunday but it won't last long, with the next pulse of strong groundswell due to arrive through the morning, filling in strongly through the afternoon but holding a good size on Monday morning.

The source of this swell is a 'bombing' low which has formed thanks to the remnants of a tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean (Anggrek), drifting south-east and being absorbed into the westerly storm track. A strong upper level jet will help feed this low, with a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW tending W winds due to be generated through our south-western swell window, with the low stalling slightly while south-west of Tasmania tomorrow.

This will prolong the swell with it due to tend more S/SW into Monday morning before easing.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should build back to the 5-6ft range into the afternoon on the magnets, 8ft on the sets to the east, easing slowly from 4-5ft+ and 6ft to possibly 8ft respectively Monday morning.

Local winds on Sunday look good in the morning, N-N/NW on the Surf Coast and N/NE-NE to the ease, but a shift to the SE is due later morning before the swell really kicks, freshening into the afternoon.

Now, there's a funky chance for a swing in winds back to the N/NE near dark ahead of a trough and S/SW change into Monday but this is low in confidence.

This trough will ruin the swell into Monday with strengthening SW tending S/SW winds, persisting Tuesday.

S'ly winds look to persist Wednesday, tending more E-E/SE on Thursday but with weak levels of mid-period swell.

Longer term we may see some new swell into next weekend but ahead of this there's nothing major on the cards. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!