Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 18th December)

Best Days: Today, Saturday morning to the east

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swell today with winds tending strong NE mid-late PM
• Moderate sized W/SW-SW groundswell building tomorrow with fresh SW winds at dawn, strengthening from the S/SW
• Easing groundswell Wed with fresh S winds, easing and tending S/SE
• Strengthening SE winds Thu with a building SE windswell, holding Fri with strong E/SE tending S/SE winds (lighter to the east for a period in the AM)
• Small-mod sized mid-period SW swell Sat with gusty E/SE winds, tending strong S/SE into the PM (light E winds to the east in the AM)
• Strong S/SW winds Sun
• Winds tending S/SE Mon next week, SE on Tue

Recap

Small, clean fun waves for the keen on Saturday morning across the Surf Coast, though yesterday was much better with a new mid-period W/SW swell to 3-4ft under light offshore winds. To the east the swell was solid on the beaches and to 5-6ft with light winds and improving conditions late morning to early afternoon before sea breezes kicked in.

Today the surf is more manageable and cleaner with an offshore wind and easing 4ft sets, not ideal on the mid-morning low tide. To the west it's smaller and back to 2ft to occasionally 3ft. Make the most of it as the coming period is sub-par.

Straight solid set on this morning's low tide

This week and weekend (Dec 19 - 24)

Make the most of the surf on the coast today, with winds due to go variable before strengthening from the NE again later as the swell continues to ease in size.

This strengthening NE'ly will be ahead of a trough and stronger SW change around dawn tomorrow, shifting more S/SW as the morning progresses.

This will spoil our good new W/SW-SW groundswell that's due to arrive through the day and peak into the afternoon, generated by a strong polar low that formed around the Heard Island region last Thursday, generating a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds, with a couple of storm-force bursts.

The low weakened while moving up and under the Bight on the weekend, and there's no change to the expected size with inconsistent 4-5ft sets due on the Surf Coast with 6-8ft waves to the east but with the poor, strong S/SW-SW breeze.

We'll see winds slowly swing to the S'th on Wednesday and SE on Thursday as the swell eases away in size, with the whole event going to waste.

A strengthening of the SE winds through Thursday thanks to a deepening inland trough squeezing a high moving east under the country will kick up some poor quality windswell later in the day, persisting Friday as winds shift E/SE though remain strong.

There's a chance for lighter E/SE winds for a period in the morning to the east but the surf will be quite junky and all over the place with only weak levels of background mid-period SW energy to 2ft+.

Saturday looks a touch better along with the arrival of an inconsistent, mid-period SW swell to the mix. This is being generated by a weak polar that's currently just east of the Heard Island region.

It's nothing major in strength but should provide 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast (hard to see under the local SE windswell) with 4ft+ sets to the east. There should be a period of lighter E winds in the morning offering peaky options for the keen.

This unfortunately looks to be the only decent window for the period, with the next trough due to move in Sunday bringing strong S/SW winds and some localised windswell.

The pattern of a new high moving in from the west along with a shift in winds to the S and then SE looks to repeat through early next week though with better winds possibly developing for the beaches from Wednesday through Thursday. We'll review this on Wednesday.