Poor, windy outlook
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th November)
Best Days: Selected spots to the east tomorrow morning
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Early variable winds tomorrow, strengthening from the E/SE, tending SE through the PM
- Window of E winds in selected spots to the east in the AM tomorrow
- Easing mix of swells tomorrow
- Small pulse of mid-period SW swell for later tomorrow, peaking Wed
- Large, stormy SE windswell for Wed/Thu with strong SE winds
- Easing SE windswell Fri with strong S tending SW winds
- Strong SW winds Sat
- Mod-fresh S-S/SE winds Sun
Recap
Friday's fun waves on the beaches continued into Saturday with a little less size and morning and winds remained favourable for both coasts until mid-late afternoon.
A trough brought in stronger onshore winds and poor conditions yesterday along with a mix of S/SW groundswell and localised windswell, continuing into today but easing in size.
Fun waves on Saturday
This week and weekend (Nov 28 – Dec 3)
Highs and troughs.
They'll dominate the coming forecast period with eyes focussed on the local winds around the traps instead of swell generating storms.
Reason being, without favourable winds and surface conditions it's not really worth worrying about the incoming swells. Not that there's anything too significant on the cards in any case.
Looking at the current synoptic setup and the trough linked to the weekend's change and strong onshore winds is now merging with a broader area of low pressure sitting inland, spanning NSW, SA and our state.
The low will squeeze a strong high in the Bight from tomorrow, with pre-dawn variable winds expected to strengthen and move in from the east, bringing strong E/SE tending SE winds. There's a chance for more favourable E'ly winds across selected locations to the east until about midday tomorrow though swell wise we'll be looking at dropping sets from 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east.
Over the coming week, the low pressure squeezing against the high are both due to drift slowly south-east, moving into the Tasman Sea later in the week.
This will see strong SE winds on Wednesday, and Thursday, shifting more S'th and then SW on Friday as we fall under the backside of the low in the Tasman Sea.
SW winds look to persist Saturday morning, though shifting back to the S/SW through the day and then S-S/SE on Sunday as the next high starts to edge in from the west.
So all in all besides a window of workable winds to the east tomorrow morning, options for a clean wave look limited.
Now, coming back to the swell sources and some small, background mid-period SW energy is due later tomorrow and Wednesday morning but it will be hard to discern under localised SE windswell from the strong E/SE-SE winds.
This windswell looks to reach a stormy 5-6ft on the Surf Coast Wednesday and Thursday morning, easing into Friday.
Otherwise there's nothing too noteworthy swell wise into the weekend or early next week. More on this Wednesday though.
Comments
a week ago i came up to the GC for work (managed to catch that big Sunday swell before i left), nothing happening here surf wise, waste of time bringing the board so far and looks like I'm not missing anything in vic either
grim forecast craigos, what did we do to deserve this one?
I reckon all those CBD Lefts you've pulled back on over the last month coming back to haunt Tubba. Might need to pay the SC overlord a visit to ask for redemption
Surfed the protected spot west of Bells yesterday with 100 or so of my closest mates.
Was surprising how consistent it was.
@Craig was that a product of the wind swell on top of the ground swell wrapping through the bay?
or was the swell yesterday particularly good and spoiled by the wind.
The session was surprisingly fun despite the chaos.
I'd say the direction and quality of the groundswell. South and in the medium-range swell window.
Any chance the easterly protected spots on the Bass coast and east will have clean little wave over the weekend Craig or is the swell direction going to be too east as well?
Sunday the best chance but with small levels of background SW swell. Windswell looks too east on the weekend.
Thanks mate
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/weather/dangerous-weather-set-...
this sort of stuff doesn't look like an El Nino at all
frothing for next Wednesday when it goes NE semi offshore again
Not all El Niños = dry, scorching weather, and this one is quite out of the ordinary with the amount of warm water currently sitting around the globe, compared to past decades..
Regarding your comment Craig, is there a precedent for this current El Nino setup?
22deg water offshore at vicco latitudes in November seems crazy, floods on the way?
No there isn't. This is the warmest year, ocean and temperature wise in modern history.
Crazy times
Wow. 82 and 97 were big El Nino's too (Ash Wednesday early '83)
So does this mean the El Nino occurs, but because of the global warm water, it occurs with rainfall and wild weather everywhere, rather than scorching drought? If you look at those warm water anomalies off southern NSW in last pic, that's exactly where this storm is going to spool up today. (And if you look at the WA charts, it's been blowing so easterly that Margs area would be generating a swell for the east coast of South Africa!)
When the thunderstorm rolled through on the weekend we got really heavy rain, streets flooded, sand moved onto roads, our garden flooded in lower places. By next day we had recorded 52mm in the rain gauge. The lawns that had been turning have just gone back to being green, almost instantly. If the choice is rain through summer or Feb '83 again, I choose rain.
Yeah the marine heat wave sitting east of Bass Strait is helping drive the moisture but so is the warmer water in general surrounding Australia..
Usually the classic El Niño's see a cool horseshoe shape throughout the North and South Pacific, wrapping the warm equatorial pool but this isn't the case with this event.
And highs and troughs, as a wise man once said.
Seems your IODs and your MJOs and your el neeenyos take a back seat when we're stuck in a pattern like this.
Those charts showing the sea temps of 82, 93 and 2023 are scary in many respects Craig. Who knows what effect it's going to have on the weather (and surf) locally, but it must be having a significant effect on ecosystems globally and increasing polar ice melting resulting in rising sea levels.
All this chat about the combo of super warm water and low pressure is feeling similar to when the north coast low hung around way longer than the BOM forecast and wouldn’t exit stage left.
The BoM are way out of their depth trying to forecast 3 - 6 months in advance , stick to 7 days boys and girls . Leave the long term forecasts to Druids and Wizards !
There is just too much variability in climate to forecast that far out with any degree of certainty , and now with global warming etc , its actually irresponsible of them to come out with calls of El Nino and droughts . and what have we now- widespread rain right up the east coast of Oz and into NT as well
Well today would have to be the worst weather day of the year. Brutal out there.
good weather for farmers and gardeners DX3 ! ( and frogs and ducks )
Nope, not good for the farmers :(
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/103159346
Either my cataracts got much worse overnight or the cams are taking a battering.
Coast is getting smashed, white water a long way out with the different swell direction. Some shelter inside the line of bombies in Zeally Bay but it's a mess
Fun to watch!