Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th November)

Best Days: Today to the east, tomorrow exposed beaches ahead of the change, Tuesday morning for the keen, Friday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, mix of easing swells tomorrow with light E/NE-NE winds to the east, variable to the west ahead of a shallow, late PM change
• Moderate sized S/SW groundswell for Sun with some localised windswell thanks to strong S/SW-SW winds
• Easing mix of swells Mon with strong S/SW-SW winds
• Small mix of swells Tue with variable tending strong SE winds (check back Mon for confirmation on winds)
• Sizey, stormy SE windswell Wed, easing Thu with strong SE winds Wed, gusty Thu
• Easing mix of small swells Fri with E-E/NE tending S/SE winds

Recap

Yesterday's mid-period swell offered a decent kick in size across the Surf Coast, coming in at 4ft+ across the magnets under a moderate onshore wind, freshening into the afternoon. Locations to the east were bigger and bumpy, only for the keen.

This morning the swell is easing but conditions are cleaner to the east with E-/NE winds. The Surf Coast has some SE windswell also in the mix with peaky sets to 3ft, 4ft to the east.

Winds will try and go sea breezy this afternoon but instead likely go variable into the evening.

Wobbly, cleaner surf today

This weekend and next week (Nov 25 – Dec 1)

Tomorrow will be great for the beaches again with a further drop in swell from today, back to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east under a light E/NE-NE breeze (variable to the west). Conditions should remain favourably until late afternoon when a trough brings a S'ly change.

This change will initially be weak, but come early Sunday, we'll see the eastern arm of a new high pressure system squeezing against the trough, which looks to form a small low pressure centre, bringing strengthening S/SW-SW winds.

This will spoil a good, moderate sized S/SW groundswell that's been generated by a strong polar low that fired up along the polar shelf yesterday. A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds were generated, with the swell due to arrive tomorrow evening, peaking Sunday (likely morning).

The Surf Coast should see 4ft+ waves with 6ft+ sets to the east though with those poor local winds and conditions.

Unfortunately strong S/SW-SW winds look to persist into Monday as the S/SW groundswell eases, mixed in with some local windswell.

The trough/low is due to hang in the region on Tuesday and this will bring tricky, variable winds on the Surf Coast that look to shift E/SE-SE through the day, E/NE tending strong SE to the east.

This isn't set in stone so check back here on Monday for an update on these local winds, but swell wise there's no major SW energy expected with building SE windswell into the afternoon from the strengthening SE winds. Expect small, peaky 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast in the morning, 3ft+ or so to the east.

The afternoon SE'ly on Tuesday will strengthen significantly into Wednesday, bringing a solid, stormy increase in SE windswell across the Surf Coast, while to the east, a fun, moderate sized background SW swell is due. Conditions will be poor across all locations though, remaining so Thursday as winds ease off a touch but remain gusty from the S/SE-SE.

Winds look to ease and tend E/NE on Friday morning along with a small mix of easing SE windswell and background mid-period SW swell. This improving trend looks short-lived as another high shifts in from the west next weekend, bringing a return to S/SE winds. The outlook following this is divergent so check back here on Monday for the latest. Have a great weekend!