Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 18th October)

Best Days: Today on the exposed beaches, tomorrow ahead of sea breezes, Friday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized S/SW groundswell peaking tomorrow morning with light, local offshore winds, tending NE later morning ahead of sea breezes
• Easing swell Fri with similar winds to Thu
• Low point in swell Sat with early N tending W/NW winds, strengthening into the PM
• Moderate sized + S/SW-SW swell Sun with strong SW winds
• Easing swell Mon with strong but easing SW tending S winds
• Small to tiny, fading surf Tue with strengthening N/NE winds, tending N/NW later

Recap

Easing onshore winds provided improving conditions across all locations yesterday though the swell was too big for the exposed beaches to the east, better on the Surf Coast and to 4ft in the morning, smaller through the afternoon.

This morning we've got smaller surf to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east with much cleaner conditions under a light offshore wind. The swell is a little lumpy but fun and winds are due to remain favourable until mid-afternoon before weak sea breezes kick in.

Easing but fun options this morning

This week and next (Oct 19 - 27)

With the swell weakening and on a downwards trend today, we'll see this changing into tomorrow as a moderate sized pulse of S/SW groundswell arrives overnight, peaking through the morning.

The source was a strong polar low generating a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds south of the country the last couple of days.

While aimed mostly to the east, we should see plenty of energy spreading up radially into the state with consistent 4ft waves due on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ sets to the east tomorrow morning, easing into the afternoon and then down from 2ft+ and 3-4ft respectively on Friday morning.

There's the chance for the odd bigger bomb at the peak of the swell tomorrow morning on the magnets and local winds look great with a light N/NW breeze on the Surf Coast, N/NE to the east, tending NE through the late morning across all locations ahead of SE sea breezes.

Friday looks to play out similarly as the swell eases.

Moving into the weekend and the surf will continue to ease in size and early N winds will shift W/NW, strengthening into the afternoon, then swinging strong on Sunday.

This will be as a surface trough deepens into a low directly south-west of us, bringing with it a rapid jump in localised S/SW-SW swell on Sunday as it starts moving east.

It's position and strength aren't ideal for any major swell generation, with a fetch of strong to gale-force S'ly winds forming directly off the West Coast of Tasmania due to generate the most size Sunday, pulsing to 4-5ft+ or so on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east.

It'll be stormy and low quality, easing through Monday but with strong SW-S/SW winds as the low continues east. Into the evening, lighter S/SE winds are due but it won't be until Tuesday that conditions improve, with a strong N/NE breeze due to develop, swinging N/NW later in the day as another deepening mid-latitude low moves in from the west.

Unfortunately there'll be no size left on Tuesday when winds go offshore with fading 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast, 2ft to the east.

The low is forecast to move across us mid-late next week, bringing a larger pulse of onshore swell but with poor S'ly winds. So all in all the outlook is average from the weekend, so make the most of the coming days of surf!