Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 13th October)

Best Days: This morning Surf Coast, Sunday Surf Coast, Tuesday mid-late morning through early afternoon, Wednesday on the exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mix of W/SW swells today with strengthening SW winds into the PM
• Weak W/SW swell tomorrow AM, with building weak SW swell into the PM
• Strong W/NW winds, tending W/SW late PM tomorrow
• Moderate sized mid-period SW-S/SW swell peaking Sun with W/NW-NW tending W-W/NW winds
• Mix of moderate sized swells Mon with strong SW tending S/SW winds
• Easing surf Tue with rapidly easing S winds, variable late AM ahead of sea breezes
• Smaller Wed with N/NE tending NE winds
• Late pulse of SW groundswell Wed, peaking Thu with N tending S winds
• Moderate sized W/SW swell Fri with S/SE winds

Recap

Weak, average surf yesterday with a low point in swell energy and deteriorating conditions through the day.

This morning we've got a weak mix of new swells to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets while the beaches to the east are larger but a mess. A drop in size is due through the afternoon as winds shift SW and strengthen.

This weekend and next week (Oct 14 - 20)

A temporary low point in swell is due early tomorrow before we see building mid-period energy out of the W/SW in the morning and SW into the afternoon, peaking through Sunday, followed by a secondary pulse of energy on Monday.

The weak nature of the current and forecast swells is thanks to the frontal systems moving through our swell windows being relatively weak in nature with the fetch strengths falling below the gale-force range.

The polar system projecting up towards us through tomorrow looks the best, generating a healthy fetch of sub-gale-force SW winds through our south-western and southern swell windows, producing a moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell for Sunday and Monday morning.

Ahead of this, tomorrow looks weak as a mid-latitude front pushes through, with 3ft sets max due on the Surf Coast magnets in the morning, building to 4ft into the afternoon along with strong W/NW winds, that will only shift W/SW later in the afternoon.

Sunday should reveal stronger 4-5ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft+ waves to the east along with weaker and better W/NW-NW offshores, likely only tending W for a period into the afternoon and holding from the W/NW.

This will be the pick of the weekend and forecast period as come Monday, a final front (come low) looks to move in on dawn, bringing strong SW winds, along with moderate levels of reinforcing low period SW swell.

Come Tuesday winds are due to back off really quickly, being moderate to fresh at dawn but tending light by mid-morning along with moderate sized, easing levels of surf.

3ft waves are due on the Surf Coast with easing 4-5ft sets to the east, smaller Wednesday with that offshore N/NE wind for the exposed beaches.

Now, as touched on the last few updates, a strong polar storm that could have generated some quality groundswell late week has fallen apart with dual systems now expected to form along with less intensity.

The first will be strong but poorly aligned, with a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds generated late in our swell window. A small S/SW groundswell is due from this source late Wednesday but more so Thursday, followed by a secondary small pulse Friday. We may see a better W/SW swell generator moving in under the country through the week but we'll look at this again on Monday.

A trough looks to bring N'ly winds Thursday morning ahead of a change and S'ly winds Friday but again, check back Monday for the latest. Have a great weekend!