Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 15th September)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Generally average surf Sat, though possible late options on the Surf Coast
• Fun day of waves on the Surf Coast on Sunday
• Waves all next week in Torquay; light winds Mon then W'lies until the weekend
• Mon the only worthwhile day east of Melbourne (exposed); winds will spoil conditions otherwise
• Chance for a few small days in Western Port; Sun, then Wed/Thurs

Recap

Tiny residual held out around the 1ft mark in Torquay on Thursday, bumping up to 1-2ft this morning with the arrival of a distant W/SW swell, with clean conditions under mainly W/NW winds. East of Melbourne eased to a slow 2-3ft Thursday but has built back up to 3-4ft today with the new swell. Thursday was clean with favourable winds but today has renewed bumpy conditions. 

Fun Peninsula shories on Thursday

This weekend (Sep 16 - 17)

We've had another further uptick in size potential for the weekend, though I am trying to keep my expectations in check due to the dominant westerly swell direction.

That being said, core wind speeds around an embedded low contained with a mobile frontal conveyer belt below the continent are looking very good, upwards of 50kts. Add in the fact that its working on an active sea state (generated by the front prior), and I'm prepared to let some of my directional concerns slip past the goalkeeper.  

But, we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Saturday will start small - much like today - with a building trend through the day as the first of the westerly swell series rolls through Bass Strait. Fresh NW tending W'ly winds will create poor conditions at most spots except for the Surf Coast, we should see some 2-3ft sets by mid-late afternoon but expect small, very slow surf earlier. 

Sunday will see abating winds from the W/NW as a front clears to the east. This will again not be overly beneficiail for anywhere east of Melboure except Western Port (where wave heights are likely to be borderline, and therefore heavily reliant on a tidal push), so your best options will be west of Melbourne where we should see surf size holding 3-4ft at the more reliable swell magnets (smaller elsewhere).

For the record, our surf model is calling for bigger waves on Sunday, but I'd just rather be a little more cautious about this event; confidence is not especially high. Westerly swells not only shave off more size across the Surf Coast than usual, the consistency of the swell also decreases too, so we need to temper expectations.

But, there should be some fun waves about.

Next week (Sep 18 onwards)

A weak high pressure ridge will create variable winds on Monday as wave heights temporarily ease to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft east of Melbourne (the westerly direction creating a bigger size spread from east to west, than we usually see). 

However, the conveyer belt of Southern Ocean fronts will resume persistent westerlies from Tuesday thru' next weekend, and we'll see a steady supply of moderate plus surf - again, with a strong westerly component - accompanying.

At this stage, most days should see size around the 3ft mark west of Melbourne and 4-6ft east of Melbourne, though there is scope for a little more size Wed/Thurs. Either way it's shaping up for another great run of waves for the Torquay region, with small surf options inside Western Port at the peak of each pulse too. 

I'll have more details on that in Monday's update.

Have a great weekend!