Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 9th August)

Best Days: Today, Saturday ahead of the change, early Sunday Surf Coast, Monday afternoon on the beaches, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swell today with strengthening N winds, tending N/NW later
• Low point in swell tomorrow ahead of some new, weak W/SW swell later, easing Fri
• Gusty W/NW winds tomorrow, shifting W/SW-SW into the PM
• Peristent W/NW-NW winds Fri
• Small, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell arriving later Fri, peaking Sat with fresh W/NW winds, tending gusty S/SW mid-late PM
• Moderate sized, mid-period SW swell arriving late Sat, peaking Sun, easing slowly Mon
• Moderate SW tending S/SW and then S/SE winds Sun (W/NW early Surf Coast)
• Moderate E/NE tending NE winds Mon
• Variable winds Tue

Recap

Great options across the beaches yesterday with clean conditions across most spots and sets to 4-5ft to the east and 2-3ft on the Surf Coast. The incoming afternoon tide kicked the swell a little into the afternoon and then this morning, we've got an inconsistent but good W/SW swell that's continuing to provide 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft sets to the east.

Winds will strengthen from the N'th through the day and tend N/NW later as a cold front approaches from the west along with a slow drop in size.

Great conditions and surf yesterday PM

This week and next (Aug 10 - 18)

The swell is due to reach a temporary low point tomorrow morning across both regions, back to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to the east. Gusty W/NW winds are due to shift W/SW-SW into the afternoon.

A small, weak increase in localised W/SW swell is due from the front but only to 2ft on the Surf Coast Friday morning and 3-4ft to the east.

Later into the afternoon some small, new mid-period W/SW swell is due to arrive, with better energy due over the weekend.

The polar frontal progression linked to these swells is starting to form south-west of Western Australia but it's quite patchy and not consolidated with fetches of strong W'ly winds being generated through our medium-range swell window.

During today and tomorrow a slight better fetch of gale-force W/SW winds will develop to the south-southwest of Western Australia, projecting slightly east-northeast before weakening and then being followed by a secondary system piggy-backing up through Friday.

This will generate building levels of mid-period SW swell on the weekend, kicking later Saturday and peaking Sunday, easing slowly into Monday and Tuesday next week.

Ahead of the best pulse of swell later in the day, Saturday looks mostly slow and to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east, while Sunday should come in at 4ft and 6ft respectively on the sets.

The easing trend will be slowed by that secondary front on Friday, with dropping surf from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast Monday with 5-6ft sets to the east, smaller Tuesday.

Coming back to the local winds and a persistent NW-W/NW offshore is due Friday, with Saturday seeing W/NW offshores ahead of a trough and S/SW change mid-afternoon.

Sunday is dicey with lingering SW winds due across most locations, shifting S/SW and then S/SE through the day but without much strength. There's a good chance for early W/NW winds on the Surf Coast but it'll be short-lived and a little lumpy.

Monday looks best to the east as a high slides in under us, swinging winds E/NE through the morning and then NE into the afternoon.

Tuesday should be favourable across both regions with variable, light local offshore winds that may remain light all day as another trough lingers in the region.

Longer term, we've got small to moderate levels of mid-period and groundswell out of the W/SW due mid-late week under NW winds, with a possible low bringing a strong onshore change Friday and stormy, localised swell. More on this Friday.