Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th May)

Best Days: Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Low point in swell tomorrow morning ahead of a small-mod, inconsistent S/SW swell later in the day
• Strong N-N/NW tending NW winds tomorrow
• Moderate sized W/SW-SW swell building Fri with gusty W/NW winds
• Moderate sized swell Sat AM, with a stronger increase in size due later in the day
• Gusty W/NW-NW winds Sat
• Mod-large SW groundswell Sun AM, with a much larger SW groundswell building into the afternoon/evening
• Gusty N/NW tending NW winds Sun
• Large easing SW groundswell Mon with fresh N/NW-NW tending N/NW winds
• Moderate sized swell Tue with stronger NW winds

Recap

The Surf Coast continued to pump through yesterday with moderate sized levels of swell to 4-5ft under an all day offshore wind, bigger to the east with protected spots fairing the best.

This morning there's a touch more north in the wind and the beaches across the Surf Coast and to the east are cleaner with a further drop in swell back from 3ft+ to the west and 4-5ft to the east. Winds will strengthen while going more N through the day, favouring the beaches as the swell continues to ease.

This week and weekend (May 25 - 28)

Tomorrow could be a good lay day and rest day with the swell due to bottom out through the morning along with tricky, strong N tending N/NW winds.

Winds will shift more NW into the afternoon and a small pulse of new, mid-period SW swell is due to fill in but it doesn't look overly significant. The source of this swell was a patchy, weak polar frontal system and we should see slower 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4ft waves to the east in the morning, becoming slightly more consistent in the upper 3ft range on the Surf Coast into the late afternoon, 4ft+ to the east.

Moving into Friday we should see a fresh pulse of moderate sized, mid-period W/SW swell, generated by a broad but relatively weak frontal system pushing up and across us Thursday evening and early Friday.

The swell is due to build through the day and peak into the afternoon, reaching 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east along with gusty W/NW winds. The morning looks smaller and 3ft or so to the west with 4-5ft sets to the east.

Saturday looks to hold a similar size ahead of a larger increase in swell later in the day, generated by a great, pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales forming at the head of a significant polar low to the south of the country tomorrow afternoon and evening.

This fetch alone looks to generate moderate to large sized SW groundswell that's expected to peak on Sunday morning, coming in at 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east, but we've got an even larger pulse of SW groundswell due to fill in through the afternoon.

The low proper will produce a great fetch of severe-gale SW winds while projecting up towards us through Friday and Saturday, on top of the active sea state generated ahead of it.

In the early stages the core wind speeds actually look to reach storm-force and this will generate an oversized SW groundswell that is expected to pulse strongly Sunday afternoon.

Now, there is still some slight divergence in the modelling between EC and GFS, with EC having the storm being a touch smaller in scope and moving a touch slower up towards us.

What this would result in is a later arrival time Sunday afternoon, more so into the evening and with less size.

With one more forecast day to come, lets peg the size mid-late afternoon to the 8ft range on the Surf Coast and 10-12ft to the east, but there's room for an upgrade in GFS gets its way.

Monday morning will still provide plenty of size, easing back from 6-8ft on the Surf Coast and 10ft to the east, with a good reinforcing pulse due to slow the easing trend further on Tuesday.

Coming back to the local winds and gusty W/NW-NW breezes are due all day Saturday, swinging N/NW on Sunday morning ahead of the swell and then NW through the afternoon.

Fresh N/NW-NW tending N/NW winds are due on Monday with the large, easing swell, swinging back to the NW and strengthening Tuesday.

With this outlook there'll be plenty of great quality surfing options for the fit and experienced.

Longer term another strong frontal progression may develop mid-late week, bringing a renewal of at least moderate sized swell into the end of the week, but we'll have a closer look at this on Friday. See you then!