Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun waves everywhere on Thurs though rapidly easing in size, best east of Melbourne
• Nice weekend of waves, best suited to open beaches; sizeable east of Melbourne
• Stacks of surf for the following week

Recap

Tuesday saw a continuation of poor onshore conditions though surf size built to 3-4ft west of Melbourne, with bigger surf to the east. Size has maintained overnight into this morning, and although east of Melbourne has seen onshore winds persisting, lighter westerly winds along the Surf Coast have allowed conditions to slowly clean up. Winds have reverted back to a light SW this afternoon which is bumping up the surf as swell size gradually eases.

This week (May 9 - 12)

Easing swells will continue through the rest of the week, with Thursday the pick of the forecast period.

Winds will remain very light under the influence of a high pressure system, but if anything it’ll puff up form the north. This will favour the open beaches east of Melbourne where abating size should manage early 3-4ft sets (more around 2ft west from Melbourne). 

Smaller surf will then pad out Friday as a shallow SW change pushes through associated with a weak front. Winds should be N/NW through the morning, but the surf will be very small in Torquay so may not be especially worthwhile, unless you’re up for a grovel. East of Melbourne will be at risk of becoming wind affected as the day progresses, even though no major strength is expected. 

So, give it a miss and aim for a paddle on Thursday. Otherwise, make it super early on Friday.

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

The current block within our swell window - responsible for the easing trend - will cease around Thursday as a powerful cut-off low approaches from the west. This system looks really good on paper with a broad fetch of gales around the low as it moves up through the Bight, albeit initially aimed outside of our swell window.

Unfortunately, by Friday morning this fetch will be quickly transitioning out of our swell window and so we’re looking at only a small time of swell generation favourable for Victorian surfers (see below). 

This system will generate a nice flush of energy that’ll arrive overnight Friday, peak Saturday morning and then steadily ease throughout Sunday. 

The swell direction will have quite a lot of west in it, which won’t favour the Surf Coast for size and consistency. As such, most locations will probably only see size around the 2ft mark though the regional swell magnets could pick up occasional 3ft+ sets, esepcially along the Bellarine Peninsula. Winds will be light under a ridge of high pressure pushing in from the west, if anything we may see afternoon easterlies.

East of Melbourne will be your best on Saturday as the swell Weill be bigger here and the eventual easterly airstream will only enhance conditions further. Expect solid 4-5ft, maybe 4-6ft sets across the Peninsula, with slightly bigger waves at exposed parts of the Island (which enjoys westerly swells the best).

Light N/NE winds on Sunday and steadily easing surf will again favour the open beaches, mainly those east of Melbourne.

All in all a great weekend of waves but expect slow options across the Surf Coast.

Next week (May 15 onwards)

Lots of activity for the long term with a steady conveyor belt of polar lows and fronts expected to generate a whole stack of groundswell for the following week or two. 


Monday will probably be undersized (being between swell events) but from Tuesday onwards we should start to pick up plenty of waves for the Surf Coast and small options inside sheltered corners east from Melbourne.

Let’s take a closer pass on Friday.