Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 24th April)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow, Wednesday, early Saturday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Temp low point in swell early tomorrow, with a moderate sized W/SW groundswell for the PM, easing Wed
• Local offshore winds tomorrow AM, light E/NE-NE into the PM
• Local offshore winds Wed AM, fresher N/NE into the PM
• Small Thu with strong N winds, easing later
• Strong N/NW tending W/NW, then W/SW winds Fri with a building, inconsistent SW groundswell
• Mix of inconsistent SW groundswell Sat and larger, localised SW-W/SW groundswell with early W/NW tending SW-S/SW winds
• Easing surf Sun with gusty SE winds

Recap

Smaller surf on Saturday and best on the Surf Coast, while conditions were workable to the east with the light winds.

A new pulse of swell provided a bit more size yesterday, cleanest on the Surf Coast and to 3ft+ on the reefs, bumpy and 4-6ft to the east.

This morning conditions are clean and good across all locations with an additional pulse of mid-period SW swell maintaining inconsistent 3ft+ sets on the Surf Coast magnets with 5-6ft sets to the east. The swell is due to ease a little through the day as winds go light sea breezey and even possibly variable.

This week and weekend (Apr 25 - 30)

Our pulses of SW swell energy are due to ease back through this afternoon, dropping further through tomorrow, back to a temporary 2ft early on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east. A new pulse of W/SW groundswell is due to arrive through the morning and build towards a peak through the afternoon.

The source of this swell was a strong but poorly structured low developing to the south-west of Western Australia on the weekend, generating an initial fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds, weakening while tracking east-southeast towards us.

While not ideal in track, the strength and continued swell generating fetch through our swell window should produce a fun kick in size back to 3ft across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east, then easing through Wednesday from 2ft to occasionally 3ft and 4ft respectively.

Conditions will be favourable for both regions through the morning with local offshore winds (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE to the east), shifting variable E/NE-NE into the afternoon.

Wednesday will play out similar in the morning ahead of fresher N/NE winds through the afternoon, strengthening towards dark as a slow moving mid-latitude low starts pushing in from the west.

This low will edge closer through the end of the week while weakening and this will bring strong N'ly winds Thursday morning, easing into the afternoon but with the swell reaching a low point.

The low will be replaced by a strengthening mid-latitude frontal system on Friday, bringing strengthening N/NW tending W/NW then W/SW winds along with a new, inconsistent pulse of SW groundswell.

This is being generated by a fetch of W/NW gales east of the Heard Island region, with a secondary fetch of W/SW gales due to follow, generating a secondary pulse of SW groundswell Saturday.

The first pulse on Friday should build to an inconsistent 3ft on the sets into the afternoon/evening but with the W/SW change, with the secondary increase Saturday likely to be more to 3ft+ with 4-6ft sets to the east.

Of greater importance will be some bigger, localised W/SW-SW groundswell generated by the front moving through Friday, with a burst of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds generate 4ft surf Saturday morning on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ waves to the east.

Winds look W/NW through the early morning on Saturday, shifting SW-S/SW mid-late morning, with unfavourable SE winds on Sunday as the mix of swells eases.

Monday looks dicey with S'ly winds likely to persist ahead of a renewal of frontal activity, westerly winds and building surf through the rest of the week. More on this Wednesday.