Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 17th October)

Best Days: Today until mid-afternoon, tomorrow on the beaches, similar Wednesday morning for the keen, Friday on the beaches, Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf over the coming days with E/NE-N/NE tending SE winds mid-late PM tomorrow
• N/NE tending S/SE midday Wed
• Small new SW swell Thu with fresh S/SE winds, strengthening later
• Better SW swell for Fri AM, easing with variable E/NE-NE winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes
• Easing surf Sat with N/NW tending S/SW winds
• New inconsistent W/SW swell for later Sun, peaking Mon with winds unsure. Possibly stronger S/SE

Recap

Poor surf on Saturday with a tiny, weak swell and clean conditions on the Surf Coast, onshore into the afternoon with a little more size. Yesterday was better with a mid-period SW swell and clean conditions on the Surf Coast again, less than ideal to the east.

Today our mix of new S/SW groundswell and stronger SW groundswell have filled in with 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast and 5ft sets to the east under more favourable winds. Conditions should remain favourable across both regions until early afternoon when a weak S'ly breeze starts to develop.

This week and weekend (Oct 18 - 23)

With today's swell and local winds generally favouring the Surf Coast breaks, we'll see easing size and winds out of the north-eastern quadrant favouring the beaches over the coming two days.

The Surf Coast should still offer 3-4ft sets tomorrow morning, with 4ft+ waves to the east, easing with a variable wind on the Surf Coast and E/NE-N/NE winds to the east ahead of SE sea breezes mid-late afternoon.

Wednesday will be smaller with easing 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast, 2-3ft max to the east along with N/NE offshore breezes ahead of a weak but strengthening S/SE change around midday thanks to a trough shifting in from the west.

This trough will linger through Thursday keeping S/SE winds blowing throughout the day, fresh in the morning and stronger later in the day. Swell wise a small new pulse of mid-period SW swell is due, generated by a small low firing up late in our swell window, to our south-west this evening and tomorrow morning.

A fresh pulse of size back to 2-3ft is expected on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east but with those poor winds.

A secondary, slightly stronger and broader low will generate an additional pulse of SW groundswell on Friday with a bit more size and energy due across the state.

A fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales will be followed by very tight and slim fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds.

We should see stronger 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft waves to the east along with improving winds, shifting E/NE and then NE through the morning ahead of mid-late afternoon sea breezes. Hunt the beaches on the Surf Coast, while the exposed beaches will be chunky, maybe worth a look early afternoon as the size starts to ease.

The swell will ease into the weekend and winds look to shift N/NW, favouring the Surf Coast in the morning ahead of a trough and S/SW change late morning.

The models diverge at this stage regarding the movement and deepening of the trough into Sunday/Monday, with it possibly strengthening leading to poor S/SE-SE winds. This would spoil a moderate sized, inconsistent swell for later Sunday and Monday but we'll have a closer look at this Wednesday.