Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th October)

Best Days: Today exposed beaches, Sunday morning exposed beaches, Monday, Tuesday exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf tomorrow with a S/SW change arriving after dawn on the Surf Coast, mid-morning to the east
• Tiny Fri with strong W/NW tending W/SW winds
• Small, inconsistent SW groundswell building Sat, peaking in the PM with W/NW tending weak S winds
• Weak mid-period W/SW swell Sun with light, local offshore winds, tending W
• Better mid-period S/SW swell Mon with N tending NE and then SE winds
• Easing surf Tue with N/NE winds
• SE winds likely Wed

Recap

Great conditions for the beaches yesterday with small, slow surf during the morning to 2ft to occasionally 3ft, but our new pulse of mid-period S/SW swell for late afternoon/evening pulsed nicely.

Sets to 4ft were seen on the Mornington Peninsula, 3ft on the Surf Coast, with the swell now on the ease. Dropping sets from 3ft are being seen from the east, 2-3ft early on the Surf Coast magnets. Get in this morning as the swell will continue to ease through the day as winds strengthen from the N/NE.

Fun surf yesterday PM

This week and next (Oct 13 - 21)

Looking at tomorrow, we'll see a lay day as the current swell continues to fade, coming in small to tiny across Bass Strait. A surface trough will bring a S/SW change just after dawn on the Surf Coast and mid-morning to the east.

We then turn to the slow moving mid-latitude low that's sitting in the Bight, too far north of our swell window to generate any westerly energy for us.

It'll be only once it moves across us in a weakened form that we'll see any size in Bass Strait, with a fetch of strong W/SW winds due to bring a minimal increase in W/SW windswell later in the day Friday. The morning will be tiny but clean with strong N/NW offshore winds ahead of a W/SW change mid-late afternoon.

Sets to 1-1.5ft are due late on the Surf Coast, 2ft to the east. Nothing to worry about at all.

The lack of energy through Bass Strait is also visible in the models picking up some mid-period E swell from severe-gale NE winds developing off the Gippsland Coast. The computer model isn't resolving the land features that'll block the swell very well, so don't expect any energy from the E.

The follow up front is looking much weaker and there's no real swell due off this system into Saturday, pulsing slightly Sunday to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east. A brief but better fetch of W/SW gales around a polar low at the base of the front is now expected to generate a S/SW swell for Monday.

There is one small source of swell that's due to build Saturday though and that's a very fleeting intensification of storm-force winds around a south-east tracking low on the polar shelf last night. This is a distance from us and as stated, brief but it should generate a small inconsistent SW groundswell to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east into the afternoon (smaller early).

Favourable W/NW winds ahead of weak S'ly sea breezes are due Saturday, locally offshore Sunday before shifting W through the day.

The better S/SW swell for Monday should come in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east. Winds look favourable again for both regions with light, local offshore breezes, tending NE ahead of sea brezes. But we'll have to confirm this Friday.

Looking at the rest of next week and there's no standout swell energy, with tricky pulses of small-moderate mid-period energy due from weak frontal activity moving through the Southern Ocean on the weekend and next week.

Tuesday looks possibly similar in size to Monday before easing with N/NE morning winds, likely poor and gusty out of the SE on Wednesday as an inland trough/low deepens. The models diverge regarding this development, with ECMWF having poor S/SE-SE winds persisting into the end of the week, spoiling any incoming swell, cleaner and better with the GFS solution.

Check back on Friday for a clearer idea on a tricky week next week.