Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 3rd October)

Best Days: Today exposed beaches ahead of sea beezes, selected breaks to the east Wednesday, Thursday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW swell tomorrow with moderate to fresh SE winds
• Moderate sized, mid-period SW swell for late tomorrow, peaking Wed AM with strong E/SE-E winds
• Moderate sized SE windswell Wed, easing Thu
• Fading SW swell Thu with fresh E/NE tending NE, then N/NE winds into the PM
• Tiny to flat Fri with N/NW winds
• Incosnstent mix of W/SW swells building Sat, peaking into the PM and Sun
• Gusty W/NW tending strong S/SW winds Sat, S/SE Sun

Recap

A drop in swell across all locations on Saturday with peaky options to to the east for the keen, poor on the Surf Coast.

Yesterday was much better with a new pulse of SW groundswell to 4-5ft on the exposed beaches to the east but with a slightly funky NW breeze. The Surf Coast was clean and to 3ft on the exposed beaches and reefs.

Today there's still 2-3ft of swell across the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east with excellent conditions on the beaches. Conditions should remain favourable on the exposed beaches to the east until mid-afternoon as the swell starts easing so get a surf or two in before then.

Great conditions and a good size this AM

This week and weekend (Oct 4 - 9)

Our current SW groundswell energy was generated by an elongated fetch of severe-gale NW winds tracking south-east towards the polar shelf last week. We'll see it easing in size this afternoon with those sea breezes kicking in early afternoon on the Surf Coast, delayed and more mid-afternoon onwards to the east.

Tomorrow will be smaller and a surface trough attached to a broader polar low will move in bringing moderate SE winds for dawn, freshening through the day a little, creating poor conditions.

The low will strengthen in the Bight and drift slowly south-east through the middle of the week, squeezing a high to our south-east which will setup up strong E-E/SE winds on Wednesday and a stormy, solid SE windswell for the Surf Coast.

We're looking at 4-5ft chunky sets on the Surf Coast, while to the east a new mid-period SW swell is due in the 4-5ft range in the morning. This is being generated by a healthy polar front that's currently south-west of us, generating a tight fetch of W/SW gales, with the expected size being upgraded from Friday.

Those strong winds will create tricky conditions though, with Thursday morning looking to be the pick as the low pushes east, swinging winds from a fresh E/NE'ly at dawn to the NE through the mid-late morning. Winds look to go more N/NE into the afternoon and evening, maintaining favourable conditions and size wise. Easing 2-3ft sets are due on the exposed beaches to the east in the morning, small into the afternoon, with fading SE windswell from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast.

Now, the blocking effects of the broad, slow moving low will be seen into Thursday afternoon and Friday as the swell bottoms out.

The low won't have any swell generating fetch behind it, with it weakening while moving across us and this leaves us to rely on some very inconsistent, long-range and small W/SW swell energy.

This is being generated today and tomorrow by a distant fetch of strong to sub-gale-force W/SW winds to the south-west of Western Australia, while some additional small looks to be generated by a very slim fetch of W/SW-SW gales, to our south-west on Thursday.

We should see both swells building Saturday and reaching an inconsistent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east, holding a similar size Sunday. Winds are unfortunately an issue and only offshore from the W/NW on Saturday morning ahead of any size, with a trough due to bring strong S/SW winds later morning Saturday, with gusty S/SE winds on Sunday.

Longer term there's nothing too obvious swell wise with funky winds and mid-latitude lows/troughs due to persist. Therefore make the most of today.