Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 30th September)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning beaches to the east, Sunday morning, Monday morning exposed beaches, Wednesday selected locations to the east, Thursday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mix of swells Sat with gusty E winds, tending weaker E/NE for a period during the AM east of Melb and then gusty SE into the PM
• New SW groundswell arriving Sat PM, peaking Sun with variable morning winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes
• Easing surf Mon with N/NE tending S/SE winds
• Small Tue with strengthening E/SSE winds (possibly light at dawn)
• Stormy SE windswell Wed with strong E winds
• New, mid-period SW swell for Wed, easing Thu as winds shift NE

Recap

Average surf across both regions yesterday though workable for the keen on the beaches through the morning before onshore winds freshened into the afternoon. Reinforcing levels of swell maintained 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft waves to the east.

Today we've got similar sized surf along with a junky SE windswell and strong E/SE winds. Selected spots to the east are OK while the Surf Coast is a junky mess.

Raw and windy to the east this AM

This weekend and next week (Sep 1 – Oct 7)

Winds have been slowly clocking more and more anti-clockwise over the past two mornings and into the weekend we'll see conditions continuing to slowly improve as a high slides in under us and pushes a strong low in the Tasman Sea further east.

Winds will only improve slightly across the beaches to the east, coming in fresh and gusty from the E, easing and tending E/NE through the morning before shifting SE into afternoon and strengthening again.

Swell wise, today's energy is due to ease through tomorrow, with 2-3ft of easing SE windswell on the Surf Coast and 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets to the east.

Later in the day we should see the arrival of a new SW groundswell, with it due to peak Sunday across the state. The source of this swell was an elongated and sustained fetch of severe-gale NW winds projecting towards the polar shelf, and we should see some decent size spreading radially up and into Bass Strait Sunday.

Sets to 3ft are due on the Surf Coast magnets (inconsistent) with 4-5ft+ waves on the magnets to the east and winds are looking a little tricky. Variable breezes are most likely but EC has a weak trough in the region which may bring a light NW breeze to the exposed beaches to the east.

Hopefully there's no strength to it and the quality of the groundswell should over power any dicey local winds. The afternoon will become bumpy with S/SE sea breezes so surf before early afternoon.

Monday looks great on the beaches with a N/NE offshore ahead of gusty S/SE sea breezes and easing surf from Sunday. Inconsistent, fading 2ft to possibly 3ft sets are due on the Surf Coast with waves easing from the 4ft range to the east.

The surf looks to continue to fade into Tuesday and we'll see another inland trough drifting in across the country, strengthening while tracking towards us and this will bring strong E winds into the middle of the week, along with a stormy increase in windswell on the Surf Coast, easing later week as winds go back offshore from the north-east.

Swell wise to the east, weak but persistent polar frontal systems should generate some fun mid-period swell for Wednesday, coming in at 3-4ft across the exposed beaches, easing from 2-3ft on Thursday.

Longer term the surf will continue to ease ahead of some new mid-period W/SW swell into next weekend from a slow moving mid-latitude low. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!