Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th August)

Best Days: Today Surf Coast, Saturday Surf Coast, Sunday, Tuesday onwards

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Weak, small S/SW windswell tomorrow with strong SW winds
• Easing weak swell Wed with N/NW tending N winds
• Low point in swell Thu with strengthening N winds
• Moderate sized, building mid-period W/SW swell Fri but with fresh SW winds
• Easing W/SW swell Sat ahead of a new pulse into the PM. Gusty but easing W/NW winds, shifting SW early-mid PM
• Easing W/SW swell Sun with strengthening N/NW winds
• Small Mon with strong W/NW tending SW winds
• Moderate sized mix of swells for Tue with strengthening W/NW winds

Recap

Workable waves to the east of Melbourne Saturday morning with a new S'ly swell and E'ly winds, average and choppy across the Surf Coast. Winds were funky and deteriorated through the day as a broad low sitting off Tasmania's East Coast shifted west.

The low started moving back to the east yesterday bringing W'ly tending stronger W/SW winds and some building windswell. This swell has peaked this morning with cleaner conditions in protected spots on the Surf Coast along with 3ft+ sets. The swell should ease through the day as winds hold from the W/NW.

This week and weekend (Aug 16 - 21)

Today's swell was generated by a localised fetch of strong W/SW-S/SW winds on the backside of the broad low that's still positioned across Tasmania today. We'll see this low pushing east tomorrow, bringing poor SW winds, strong in nature along with a weak, localised windswell.

Weak 2ft+ waves are due across the Surf Coast and 3-4ft sets to the east but with no quality or strength.

Winds will switch back to the N'th on Wednesday as the windswell fades. It'll be much cleaner but very weak and fading from 1-1.5ft on the Surf Coast, 2ft to the east.

Stronger N'ly winds will kick in on Thursday as a strong mid-latitude frontal progression starts edging in from the west but with no swell. Another lay day.

Friday looks a bit more promising swell wise as some new mid-period W/SW swell energy builds into the afternoon, generated by a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds south of the Bight on Wednesday. All the activity before this looks to be either too weak or poorly aimed but the fetch of W/SW winds projecting east should produce some OK waves into the end of the week.

Building surf to 3ft+ is due on the Surf Coast with 4-6ft sets to the east but with poor, fresh SW winds as the front clips us.

The next approaching frontal system should swing winds around to the W/NW on Saturday as Friday's swell eases back in size. Some new, reinforcing mid-period W'ly swell is due from this front Saturday afternoon, holding 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east. Winds will shift SW as the weakening front clips us early afternoon, so aim for a morning surf. Sunday looks fun as the swell eases with strengthening N/NW winds.

Now, following this mid-latitude activity is finally some more promising Southern Ocean activity.

While not overly well consolidated we should still see a strong low generating a healthy fetch of W/NW tending W/SW gales. This should produce a moderate sized SW groundswell for Tuesday, mixed in with some localised mid-period energy. A secondary intensification of the frontal progression may generate some larger surf into the middle of the week but we'll have to have a closer look at this on Wednesday.

Winds at this stage look favourable fo the Surf Coast and out of the W/NW Tuesday, strengthening through the day, with gusty W/SW winds on Wednesday (W'ly for a period in the morning).

Size wise the first swell should come in around 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft+ to the east but check back here on Wednesday for a clearer idea on the size and follow up fronts and swell. While nothing epic at this stage the outlook is finally looking more positive for Surf Coast boardriders.