Very slim pickings until next week
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 3rd August)
Best Days: Tuesday and Wednesday next week
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small, flukey and inconsistent W'ly swell for Fri with strong N/NW tending NW winds
- Fading swell Sat with gusty W/NW winds, shifting W/SW mid-afternoon
- Inconsistent, small W/SW groundswell building Mon PM, peaking Tue with local offshore winds, tending N/NE into the PM
- Inconsistent, small mid-period W/SW swell Wed with stronger N winds
Recap
Fun waves across the Surf Coast yesterday with a mix of swells and 2-3ft sets on the magnets, smaller and to 2ft elsewhere. It was best through the morning before the tide got to it after lunch along with increasing winds.
To the east conditions were better in the morning but best after lunch with cleaner conditions and easing surf from 3-5ft in the morning. Today the swell is all but gone with tiny waves on the Surf Coast and bumpy 2ft leftovers to the east.
Windy, cleaner surf yesterday PM
This week and weekend (Aug 4 - 7)
Looking at the coming forecast period and with the two weekly outlook not pushing above 3ft on the scale (Surf Coast), it's not entirely promising again for incoming swell.
As discussed the last few updates, a broad low pressure system is moving in and across Western Australia with multiple embedded cold fronts rotating clockwise around it.
This has brought XXL stormy swell to the Margaret River region but it's all north in latitude and won't get past South Australia let alone Cape Otway when arriving across our region over the coming days.
The models are showing 2-3ft of swell for the Surf Coast on Friday but this is highly unlikely with infrequent 1-2ft sets max due on the magnets (tiny tomorrow and Saturday) with 3-4ft sets to the east. In all honestly the Surf Coast will likely remain tiny on Friday so don't get your hopes up getting a surf in.
Winds will persist out of the north-western quadrant as we see the embedded fronts tracking south-east across us, with fresh N/NW winds tomorrow, stronger N/NW tending NW on Friday with the small W'ly swell energy.
W/NW winds are due to persist Saturday morning, giving into a W/SW change as the small, flukey swell from Friday fades, with Sunday becoming near flat with W/NW tending SW winds.
Moving into next week, our inconsistent swell from a broad but distant polar low is on track for Monday through Wednesday.
The low is due to form in the Heard Island region this afternoon and evening, with a brief burst of W'ly gales due to be followed by strong W/SW winds. The gales will generate a groundswell that will arrive a couple of days head of the mid-period energy, building Monday, holding Tuesday ahead of the mid-period energy on Wednesday.
It'll be inconsistent but the Surf Coast should see infrequent 2ft sets on Tuesday, 3ft to possibly 4ft to the east, with Wednesday seeing a touch more size to 2ft+ and 4ft respectively.
Winds look favourable Tuesday and locally offshore before tending N/NE into the afternoon with stronger N'ly winds on Wednesday.
Looking longer term, another mid-latitude low is forecast to form south-west of Western Australia early next week, though the swell potential looks limited. There's no major change to the pattern on the longer term charts but check back here Friday for any changes.
Comments
ho hum
If you change the Wave Height graph x axis to 0-1 ft it'll look a lot better for us.
Nice work Patrick, lets mangle the data. Just checked the Rye cam, bigger waves heading out to sea with the Northerly than observable swell. Mid-winter Vic has hit a new low.
One of the only things Vicco had going for it was consistency.
Let's face it, it's cold, windy, lacks perfection, lacks barrels etc.
But!
It is (was) always consistent. You could always get a wave, pretty much always above 3ft.
This is no longer the case.
2020 was fairly ordinary from memory whilst most were locked down. 2021 was all things considered actually not too bad and plenty of fun days. Since August 2021 to current day as being dead set horrific. If this was the norm the place would never have been called the surf coast. If it’s offshore it’s flat as a lake. If there’s swell it’s onshore.
Making matters even worse this year is seeing what seems every spot in the world outside of SA/Vicco light up week after week.
Just praying to Huey that our time comes again. Likely next years autumn is our best bet now, and that’s so depressing to type.
Man you said it. Very depressing. Ive hit up urbn surf a few times to ease the pain (on the discounted left promotion). Thats all good but i havent seen my favourite wave fire for over 6 months. Plenty of small days, but when it got big it was blown out.
You have summed up the conditions over the past couple of years on the SC very well Dx3. I was thinking along the same lines. The MP and Island have done OK by the looks of things. I am curious how they rate the last couple of years.
2020 and 2021 were very good on the MP beachies/non westernport reefs autumn and winter, way better than a traditional winter battling crowds for shitty waves at pt leo and shoreham. Both years it went to shit as lockdowns ended too leading to a couple worst summers ever. I haven’t been able to surf much this winter until now but looks like it’s been generally fun.
Fucken oath.
truth.
It's been a great winter for the beachies and not cold at all. Petrol's a bit pricey though
F L A T
L
A
T