Poor outlook continues
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 1st August)
Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow afternoon
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small mix of easing W'ly and W/SW swells tomorrow with fresh N/NW tending N/NE-N winds
- Tiny Wed with strong N/NW winds, easing into the PM
- Tiny Thu with mod-fresh but easing N/NW winds
- Small, inconsistent W swell Fri, easing Sat with strong N/NW winds Fri and NW Sat
- Tiny Sun with NW tending SW winds
Recap
Friday's mix of swells started to ease through Saturday but conditions were great on the Surf Coast with 2-3ft sets and options all over. Yesterday was clean again but tiny. To the east conditions were workable with solid 4-6ft sets Saturday morning, easing steadily and small to tiny yesterday.
Today the surf is wind affected and bumpy to the east with a lift in long-range W/SW groundswell energy, cleaner to the west but tiny.
This week and weekend (Aug 2 - 7)
As Ben noted through last week's forecast and following a similar theme to the past few months and years, the current period remains void of any major Southern Ocean frontal activity.
A lingering La Niña signal is continuing to cause the formation of mid-latitude lows and fronts from the southern Indian Ocean, up and across Western Australia. This is too far north to generate any meaningful westerly swell for our state with it aimed mostly into South Australia and blocked also by Cape Otway.
A weak front that's currently moving in across us will generate a small mid-period W'ly swell for tomorrow morning, easing through the day. The inconsistent groundswell currently in the mix will ease at the same time with fading 1-2ft sets max on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft sets to the east.
Conditions will improve for the beaches through the day with a fresh morning N/NW breezes, tending N/NE-N into the afternoon as the size eases. Therefore an after lunch surf is worth a look across the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island.
Come Wednesday there'll be nowhere to recommend as the swell bottoms out on the Surf Coast and choppy/small to the east with strong N/NW breezes. Winds are due to ease later in the afternoon but it's not worth chasing.
The rest of the week is tricky as a broad low pressure gyre moving in from Western Australia produces multiple embedded fronts which will all be aimed to far north of our swell window.
The models are showing a small pulse of mid-period energy from Thursday but more so Friday and Saturday but I can't see the Surf Coast seeing any size at all.
Expect tiny surf through the late week and weekend, with a touch more size to the east between 2-3ft but with bumpy conditions under persistent, strong N/NW winds Friday, shifting less favourably to the NW on Saturday. A weak trough looks to bring a W/NW tending SW change on Sunday but with no swell.
Longer term, we might see some inconsistent, small W/SW swell energy arriving mid next week from a more southerly positioned but weak polar storm though we'll have a closer look at this in the coming updates.
Looking further afield to other coasts, there's not much to recommend over east or west so ride this one out.
Comments
May as well sell the surfboard. Time to take up lawn bowls!
*sadness intensifies*
Hang in there guys!
Fishing has been all time though
Hi Craig
I thought La Neeennnya was only in the Pacific. How does it affect the Indian?
With the lower pressure across northern regions of Australia it pushes the sub-tropical high pressure belt further south than normal in summer, blocking the Southern Ocean and bringing south-east winds. Into winter it also results in more mid-latitude lows and cut-offs moving in across southern Australia and less cold fronts which usually fire up the Surf Coast. The swell comes in from the west and is blocked, but conditions remain clean with persistent north to north-west winds.
Ah, thanks for that. Always fascinated by the chicken and egg factor when looking at two weather patterns.
I thought the south-easters lasted long into autumn this year as well. Winds were definitely south but much warmer on the coasts than the south-westers, especially when they hung around into the evening.
I agree. The past 3 years have been all time crap on the SC. However, I have never seen the fishing as good as it is. Never thought I'd say it but i'm over catching tuna. Big, small or otherwise. Those days on the reefs pre-2019 are now a very distant memory. Fuck knows why the fishing has been so good yet the surf so bad
Fresh winds tomorrow. Whats the wager that we see it doesn’t get past North Craigoss?
South Channel will probably show it but at the beach likely wind affected ha.
I just had lunch but I might have to eat my words too. Though still a hour or so till I get a visual. Probably just teasing till then.
Out there! Looks fun as.
Do you have every camera up at all times?
Ha, not quite but check around the grounds during the day.
Apparently, Elvis could watch 3 televisions at once.
well it happened. SC still saying the East side of North but alas that ribby North was blowing on the back beach. Classic
Ribby north that blows the barrel open for some on it goofies and their mate to score relentless beach-break drainers?
Around the grounds ha
I guess I watch too many movies. I'm picturing craig-hq with a bond style wall of screens
Thank goodness I still have skiing to keep me amused until October.
If anyone spots a dirty, black smoke blowing from Torquay, don't worry - its just my wetsuits and surfboards burning.
man ...i hope that Batik Air flight gets off the ground Wednesday with me on it !
Knowing Batik Air, I wouldn't get your hopes up!
Huey let a bunch of pristine little swells sneeak through to the cursedcoast Saturday as forecast well in advance. Blew out some serious cobwebs.
I know we'd all like it to pump for months but a one day window of opportunity in the forecast period surely isn't too much to ask of a ruggedly handsome all seeing, all knowing surf God?
There was an article on here a little while back about giving up surfing, this poor run in Victoria combined with some other life factors have got me leaning in that direction.
Drove to Noosa scored the 6 ft swell kinda worth it 5 waves caught big crowds .boy they were good .. saw Maurice Cole in Hastings street and Hodgy in Brunswick heads all escapees
Terrible surf again today.
I recommend people continue to make sacrifices to Huey.
Burn more boards and wetties!
And a mandatory shit in the dunes.
Small clean peeling fun waves again today. Far from what the SC should be this time of year, but way better than Easterlies.
It does look clean and little and nice.
Reckon we declare it a public holiday in honour of the swell that breaks the spell.
The swell that breaks the spell .. nice.
Yes 100%
Creates a sense of anticipation. Reframes the mindset.
Still filing it under polishing a turd but hats off to you TS, you could put a positive spin on anything and I'm going under the house now to get the dusty old gun cleaned up
"Rest up" - ha ha!!
Been doing that for about two-three years now.
Torquay Report 3/8/22
Yesterday's swell has dropped right out and we're left with tiny ripples, not really surfable. Winds are fresh NNW and the tide is dropping to low around 9.15am. Rest up.
Yesterdays "swell" Lol :-(
Yep, it's a joke. Famine I tell ya!