Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 29th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Saturday the pick of the forecast period, with easing swells and early light offshore winds
• Small and windy Sun
• Very windy all of next week with no significant swells
• No signs as yet of any major break in this unfavourable pattern

Recap

Small surf kicked off Thursday with early light W’ly winds, ahead of building size to 3ft+ through the afternoon in Torquay under a freshening SW wind. Size has maintained today with early light W’ly winds tending moderate SW through the morning, then becoming light this afternoon. 

This weekend (July 30 - 31)

Saturday morning is still the pick of the forecast period.

We’ll see early light N’ly winds ahead of a freshen N/NW trend through the day, that will strengthen considerably into Sunday as wave heights bottom out. This will favour the wide open beaches for the best waves though there’ll be options at most coasts to begin with.

Early morning will see the most size, as we’re looking at a gradual easing trend kicking in overnight. Expect slow, inconsistent 2-3ft sets at the Surf Coast reefs, abating to 1-2ft by late afternoon (Sunday will probably become smaller). East of Melbourne should have a brief window of workable conditions early before the wind muscles up; expect more size here in the 4ft range at exposed beaches to begin with, ahead of the easing trend.

Sunday will likely become blown out everywhere so don’t get your hopes up for the second half of the weekend. 

Next week (Aug 1 onwards)

The long term outlook remains unchanged for Victorian surfers. You’re not gonna be happy.

In essence, the storm track is aimed pretty much everywhere except for the Vicco swell window. We’ve got an anchored, amplifying Long Wave Trough driving cold front after cold front into the West Oz coastline, and these systems are then pushing through the upper Bight - replicating the onshore pattern through South Oz - but this is riding too north in latitude to favour the Victorian coast (see below).  

So, we’ll see all of the accompanying pre-frontal wind next week - strong W/NW Monday, easing a little Tuesday then tending gale force N’ly Wednesday then back to to a strong NW on Thursday and Friday - but without any of the typical winter surf. 

The frontal progression will generate some small sideband W/SW swells for the start of next week (blustery 2ft+ sets west of Melbourne if you’re desperate) but it’s really not worth too much time and attention. East of Melbourne will be blown out for the most part… it’s not worth getting excited about the occasional one hour window of mediocrity that might appear a handful of times throughout the forecast period.

What we need is the storm track to break down and/or track to the east, and there is still no signs as to when this may occur. 

So, hang in there: I can’t say there’s light at the end of the tunnel (because there isn’t any) but every day forward is a day closer to a break in the synoptic pattern and a resumption to a positive surf outlook. 

See you Monday!