Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building swells Thurs, peaking Fri but with average conditions
• Best waves of the forecast period likely early Saturday
• Small and windy Sunday
• Small surf for the following week

Recap

Tuesday started off small and clean with onshore winds, but wave heights built to 3-4ft along the Surf Coast in the afternoon as winds veered fresh W/SW. Surf size has slowly eased today from about 3ft and winds became light, allowing conditions to improve a little. Surf size was bigger east of Melbourne but more wind affected, with few surfable options. 

This week (Jul 28 - 29)

More swell is due over the coming days however conditions are looking pretty ordinary, thanks to the passage of two fronts - one tonight and the other Thursday night. 

Winds should throttle back during both days, and there is now a slight glimmer of hope that the synoptic flow will be light enough by dawn each morning to allow a brief period of W’ly winds west of Melbourne, but it won’t be enough to iron out all of the wobbles from the onshore airstream. 

Variable winds are also likely by Friday afternoon, so keep this in mind for a window of lumpy but otherwise surfable conditions. 

As for wave heights, Thursday morning will probably start off undersized but should increase into the 3ft range west of Melbourne by the afternoon, holding through Friday at a similar size, perhaps a shade bigger near 3-4ft at times at the regional swell magnets, as the swell direction swings slightly more S of SW (sourced from a stationary polar low below the continent today, see below). 

We’ll see bigger surf east of Melbourne (peaking 4-5ft+ at open beaches) but not enough for the protected bays and points. 

On the whole, you’ll get wet if you’re keen, but it’s not worth too much time and attention. 

This weekend (July 30 - 31)

No changes to the weekend forecast, apart from Saturday’s winds which should be a little lighter and more northerly in direction. This means we’ll see a good window of opportunity for the wide open beaches as Friday’s swell gradually eases from 3ft west of Melbourne and 4-5ft to the east. 

Expect wind strength to ramp up considerably into Sunday, as wave heights bottom out into the 1-2ft range west of Melbourne (smaller by the afternoon), favouring the open beaches east of Melbourne with blustery 3ft sets. You’ll need a good wettie to ward off the wind chill.

Next week (Aug 1 onwards)

The long term outlook remains unchanged for Victorian surfers, wth the Long Wave Trough seemingly anchored west of WA, pushing frontal activity up through its (and Indonesia’s) prime swell window. This means we’ve got another week or so of generally distant and/or peripheral swell sources for some time yet.

Strong fronts passing through the Bight will deliver locally gusty NW winds at times on Monday and Tuesday, but I can’t see much above 2ft west of Melbourne for most of the week. East of Melbourne will be a write-off under these conditions, perhaps some beachies mid-late week as the winds abate.

There’s no clear indication as to when the storm track will break down and move eastwards, but hopefully Friday's update will shed some more light on when Victoria’s fortunes will swing back in favour. Until then, hold tight and make the most of Saturday’s surf.