Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 25th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Windy surf building Tues, easing and abating Wed
• More onshores for Thurs and Fri, low chance for a window of workable conditions
• Easing swells and freshening NW winds for Saturday
• Small and windy for Sunday
• No major swells on the long term horizon

Recap

Saturday was almost flat across the Surf Coast with tiny shories east of Melbourne, but a new groundswell filled into the region on Sunday, offering 2-3ft sets west of Melbourne and 4ft sets to the east, with clean conditions under an offshore flow. Size has eased right back today, back to tiny surf in Torquay but the open beaches east of Melbourne have had clean 2ft sets under deteriorating weather conditions (though remaining generally clean with N/NE winds). 

This week (Jul 26 - 29)

We’ve got some new swell on the way for tomorrow though conditions are going to become quite blustery with westerly gales thanks to the passage of a cold front. 

As per Craig’s notes on Friday, we’ll see an increase in very inconsistent, distant W/SW groundswell up to 3-4ft through the day at the Surf Coast swell magnets, sourced from the early incarnation of the parent system a polar low in our far swell window. We’ll also see some short range windswell in the mix though this won’t really start to build until after lunch.

Local winds should be out of the west through the morning, locally W/NW on the Surf Coast, though we’ll see a W’ly tendency west of Melbourne before lunchtime, tending W/SW at gale force strength into the afternoon. Wave heights may be undersized early morning whilst conditions are at their best, so keep your expectations pegged appropriately. 

East of Melbourne will be a dog’s breakfast all day with probably not enough size to make Western Port a viable option. Exposed beaches should be easily 6ft+ or bigger, but it won’t be surfable. 

The front will clear quickly to the east overnight, leaving us under a moderate W’ly flow for Wednesday, tending W/NW west of Melbourne as a weaker front rears up from the west. Size will quickly abate but there should be lumpy 3ft sets leftover west of Melbourne throughout the day. I can’t see anything worthwhile east of Melbourne for the mid-week session.

The next front will cross the coast overnight, leave the coast under a moderate to fresh SW breeze for Thursday, which will be reinforced on Friday as a secondary front pushes up across Tasmania, swinging the wind more southerly. Chances for early windows of lighter W'ly winds are low during this period.

A series of mid-range swells will fill in beneath the windswell noise, sourced from reasonable fronts tracking south of WA on Tuesday and Wednesday (see below). This should build from Thursday towards a peak on Friday (ballpark 3ft sets west of Melbourne, 4-5ft+ east of Melbourne) but it’s really not looking ideal for most regions. There is a suggestion that winds may become variable after lunch on Friday but I’m sceptical of there being any quality in the surf department, thanks to the leftover wobble from the previous days’ winds. 

Let’s check back Wednesday to see if the models have improved things in our favour.

This weekend (July 30 - 31)

This week’s storm track looks like it’ll be steered outside of out swell window from about Wednesday onwards, which means decreasing wave heights across the Victorian coast from Saturday into Sunday.

Local winds look ideal for the Surf Coast with a freshening pre-frontal NW airstream, but at this stage only Saturday morning looks to offer anything worthwhile, with easing size from 2-3ft down to 2ft by the afternoon. Similar conditions on Sunday will accompany smaller leftover swells. 

East of Melbourne’s surf potential will depend on the alignment of the approaching frontal system. Current model guidance suggests Saturday will be more NW before the airstream straightens up from the north on Sunday, so a few locations may offer small, windy waves for the second half of the weekend.

But right now it doesn’t look to be worth too many highway miles searching for waves. 

Next week (Aug 1 onwards)

No change to the recent broadscale patterns of a split storm track, aimed away from our swell window.

The Southern Indian Ocean looks very busy, but it’s aligned best towards Indonesia and Western Australia. In addition, cut-off activity in the northern Bight - hammering the South Oz coastline with westerly gales - wil concurrently restrict swell generating activity inside Victoria’s ideal mid-to-close range swelll window. This suggests mainly diatant and/or peripheral swell sources for the time being. 

So, there’ll be waves next week, but it seems that the well-overdue winter patterns of sizeable Southern Ocean swells are still some time away. 

More on this in Wednesday’s update.