Beaches ahead of the reefs
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 22nd July)
Best Days: Sunday and Monday exposed beaches, Surf Coast Tuesday morning, Wednesday and Thursday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Low point in swell tomorrow with fresh N/NE winds
- Inconsistent SW groundswell Sun with light-mod N/NE tending moderate E/NE winds
- Easing SW groundswell Mon with strengthening N/NE-NE winds
- Inconsistent, moderate sized W/SW groundswell Tue with strengthening W/NW tending stronger W/SW-SW winds early afternoon
- Slight drop in W/SW swell Wed with W/NW winds
- Low point in swell Thu with strengthening N/NW tending NW winds
- New mix of moderate sized swells Fri with strong SW winds
Recap
The last two days there's still been a tiny signal of windswell across both regions which is kinda of fascinating. Especially with winds through Bass Strait tending more north of east.
It was a bit slow to start yesterday with inconsistent 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft on the Surf Coast but our new S/SW groundswell showed better through the day, kicking to 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft to occasionally 3ft.
This morning the swell is slowly easing and conditions are cold but great for the beaches again.
Good surf yesterday afternoon
This weekend and next week (Jul 23 - 29)
Looking at the weekend in two parts and Sunday will be much better than tomorrow, with the current swell expected to ease further tomorrow, becoming tiny on the Surf Coast and 1-2ft on the Mornington Peninsula. A possible pulse of weak W'ly swell late in the day now looks off the cards.
Conditions will remain clean with a fresh, persistent N/NE breeze.
Sunday is looking clean again with a light to moderate N/NE tending E/NE breeze, but we should see a new, inconsistent SW groundswell across all breaks, generated by a strong but distant polar low to the south-west of Western Australia mid-week.
There'll be a wait for the sets but the Surf Coast should see 3ft'ers on the magnets, with 4-5ft sets to the east (smaller in between the bigger ones).
With the local winds locations to the east and the Surf Coast beaches will be the pick.
Monday should be fun across the beaches again as the swell starts to ease with a strengthening N/NE-NE breeze. Expect fading 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east.
Now, moving into Tuesday and beyond, we'll start to see some fun, moderate sized W/SW groundswell energy filling in, generated by a strong progression of polar fronts and lows up from the Heard Island region, towards Western Australia under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough.
The first polar storm is currently projecting a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds through our distant western swell window, projecting up towards Western Australia tomorrow while weakening, with the long-period W/SW groundswell due to arrive overnight Monday and peak Tuesday with inconsistent but long-lined 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east.
Winds will be best for the Surf Coast with a strengthening W/NW breeze ahead of a stronger W/SW-SW change early afternoon as a trough moves in from the west.
A secondary approaching front should swing winds back to the W/NW on Wednesday with a slight drop in size.
Our secondary pulse of W/SW groundswell is due later week, more so Friday and the source of this will be a more distant, not as robust polar storm projecting towards Western Australia. As a result less consistent 3ft surf is due on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft+ to the east, but the remnants of swell generating storm will push towards us and under the country next week generating some likely more consistent and slightly bigger mid-period W/SW-SW swell Friday more to 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east.
Thursday will be clean with strong N/NW tending NW winds as we fall in between pulses, poor Friday in the wake of an evening change leaving strong SW winds across the coast.
Longer term a high will move in next weekend, swinging winds back around to the north-east slowly as the swell eases, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
I wanted to express 3 years of La Nina on the Surf Coast musically, and found this:
VJ maate, I really don't think that's helping anyone. Hahaha
Decided our latest efforts to enliven our mournful forey's with poetry and music is just getting under the skin of everyone including our much admired forecasters. There's no delight for them in doling out a 1/10 rating but here's some surf music from a great album.
'20hrs to Brisbane'. Should've left on Friday. Did you see Greenmount yesterday?
Had a look on the cams, Grafton to Surfcoast is my record for a day's drive, yes that time is coming again :)
Love the early Oils too!
Classic!The Moginie outro at the 4.00 min mark is just brilliant!!
Read Keith Richards say sometimes it's the notes you don't play. JM sure let's it ring. Sounds like surfing and good times to me.
Everyone’s skin? as in yours standing left.
Let VJ poor his heart out in peace. It’s a surf forecast site after all. As if the authors care.
Did you listen to VJ's offering? Lol, he's funny and I'm all good with it. I just figured, because it's a surf site, I might be better to stay with the surf related comments, or not at all. Not telling VJ or anyone else what to do, my apologies if it comes across like that but negative comments about the forecast only really shoot the messenger. I'm pretty sure they read them (let's see) Right Craig?
Nah I'm all good folks, my commitment to you is to find the dodgiest, cringiest wtf links and post them for your perusal.
Tbh, the glass is half full. It was beautiful today after being very small/flat yesterday, enjoyed a bank just my son and I, went for some speed runs. The key is to adjust equipment and expectations to conditions, it really was beautiful out there. I remind myself that 99% of the days on this coast are better than where I grew up/started surfing, and even on those Nina times when it blew SE for 2 weeks straight in summer, there was still plenty to do - go for a walk and go dog watching (I don't own one but love them), stuff around the house, make stuff etc etc
It's best to have a sense of humour no matter what life serves up. We live in one of the best spots on earth, be thankful :)
Very fun waves around today. Perfect surface conditions, sun had some warmth to it and surprisingly quiet where I was.
Lucky son. Respect.
I think the story of exactly how shit the surf has been on the "Surfcoast' for the past few years begs more coverage. I know we've had expert explanation from the weather gurus, but I am interested to hear people's individual stories. I personally have not experienced shitter prolonged conditions in my 25 years of adulthood in Torquay. Older guys than me say the same. I've exhausted all alternative hobbies and vices. Thank you VJ for your positivity above.
Same Same Nasi - 30 years of Surfcoast waves and last 4 years have been the worst spell I can remember. La Nina has been incredibly shit, but the 2 seasons before la Nina kicked in (autumn winter spring) were definitely below average.
I totally agree brainiac. We had gale SE winds, bushfire smoke and shit surf in the lead up to La Nina & Covid. Also, the summer of 2018 had three days of temps above 30 degrees only. Personally - if La Nina doesnt fuck off soon then I will be moving on and rocking the family tree.
I don't think anyone outside of Victoria & the Surfcoast really gives a shite when they are all too busy enjoying endless runs of pumping waves. Everywhere I look I see pumping waves (apart from Victoria).
Daily I'm getting saturated with endless images of everywhere else just on the absolute pump. I even missed that epic Fiji swell after travel insurance wouldn't cover the wifey to travel there due to been to far progressed in her pregnancy...
Normally we would be lucky enough to be in the Maldives this time of year.. Not this year... and you guessed it right on queue. ON THE PUMP.
I feel like its a bit of a suffer in your jocks moment with our adversaries been every other state in the Australia. Look why not throw in New Zealand plus the rest of World.. Basically it has felt everywhere worldwide is shitting on us for waves in varying forms of degrees. Its been that bad at times
Then you add in all that other shit we had to endure to the next degree under pretty much dictatorial rule (in effect).. the wheels have well and truely fallen off there and one can only hope that the corrupt megalomanic spendthrift bastard ends up where he belongs - in jail.
In the famous words of REM Everybody Hurts - no not everybody hurts - only Victoria does in terms of waves or the prolonged absence of them
Ruckus - I totally agree, the timing of Covid/dictatorship has made the experience even more painful. For a Surfcoast surfer, this period has been extremely hard to stay interested, let alone positive. It has also birthed a new type of adult learner who is working from home and have learnt to surf in inconsequential waves. For those with freedom to move on, fuck this place.
You blokes from the surf coast, try living and surfing on the Mornington peninsula ya whole life. For the 35 years or so, except for the past few years, of surfing it feels like 70% of the time, I would be looking for a surf and I would think, fuck the west coast would be smoking. No way I'm driving over to Westernport to surf chest high slop when that joint is cooking, I'll wait till next week when it's offshore for a day, and hopefully, I can find half a bank where I can get 1 turn in, race through a shit weird bit then try and get a 1/2 assed cover up and try to finish with crap close out turn.
Haha, love that final sentence!
Haha now all of the west coast to Cape Otway at least is experiencing the same thing.. Maybe we should name the Surfcoast appropriately to the Hoax Coast during these periods. I'd laugh but its not really that funny
finbob respect to you crew, I couldn't do it.
So spin the wheel crew, which coast would you move to? Metro Adelaide? Metro Perth? Northern Beaches ?(tempting, kind of). The shire? NE Tassie? (I love but llloooong flat spells) Hobart? North coast Tassie, lol? South Coast NSW (tempting)... Metro Brissy? Sunny Coast? Goldy/NNSW? (love people?) Mid NSW, Mid West? West Coast SA, Eyre? Victor? An offshore island? S Coast WA? Eucla (ha!)
Every dog has it's day and the day will return when the weather pattern shifts. Hit the road in the meantime...
That is gold!