Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 18th July)

Best Days: Selected beaches tomorrow, exposed beaches Wednesday through Sunday (smallest Fri PM and Sat AM)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mod-large S/SW groundswell this afternoon, easing tomorrow with moderate E/NE-E tending fresh E/SE winds
• Easing S/SW swell Wed with E/NE tending variable winds
• Small, inconsistent S/SW groundswell Thu with N/NE tending SE winds
• Long-range, inconsistent W/SW swell in the mix Thu, easing Fri
• Easing mix of swells Fri with N/NE winds
• Small W swell building Sat with strengthening N/NE winds
• Easing swell Sun with N/NE winds

Recap

A temporary drop in size on Saturday morning with strong N'ly winds, but a new pulse of SW swell arrived through the day with fun options out of the wind across both regions east and west of Melbourne.

Yesterday was best on the Surf Coast with a shift in winds to the west as sets held in at 2-3ft, choppy and poor to the east.

Today we've got deteriorating conditions with a strong S/SW change along with a moderate to large, building S/SW groundswell. This is the result of a strong polar frontal progression pushing up and into us and we should see the Surf Coast reaching 5-6ft with 6-8ft sets to the east as S/SW winds persist.

This week and weekend (Jul 19 - 24)

Looking at the current synoptic setup and we’ve got a strong polar outbreak pushing up and across Tasmania and our state, bringing showers and snow to the alpine regions along with our moderate-large building S/SW groundswell. A strong high is moving in slowly from the west, as a low pushes across Western Australia.

This swell should peak this afternoon to the sizes outlined in the recap above, with a drop expected through tomorrow as winds swing to the east as the high moves further east.

This high will be the feature of the coming week, with it putting a block across our main swell windows while a tropical depression off the Qld coast deepens, squeezing its northern flank.

We'll see easing levels of S/SW swell tomorrow from 4ft to possibly 5ft on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east (owing to the southerly direction – smaller Phillip Island), along with moderate E/NE-E morning winds, shifting E/SE into the afternoon.

Wednesday will be good for the beaches again with an E/NE offshore, tending variable into the afternoon but with smaller, fading surf from 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft to the east.

The models are showing an uptick in long-range groundswell energy on Thursday, but the source of this swell was the same storm that delivered the large surf to J-Bay for the final days of competition. Generated in our far far swell window it won't offer any real size, while a poorly aligned polar front should generate some more noticeable, but small S/SW energy.

2ft to possibly 3ft sets are due on the Surf Coast Thursday, 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the sets to the east and with favourable N/NE winds ahead of weak SE sea breezes.

The swell will fade as N/NE winds persist Friday, similar on the weekend owing to the broad, stationary nature of the high once it moves into the Tasman Sea. This high will block a couple of mid-latitude systems moving across South Australia, deflecting them to the south-east.

A small pulse of flukey W'ly swell may be seen Saturday afternoon, generated by one of these fronts, with sets to 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east. Those N/NE winds will create great conditions on the exposed beaches, strengthening on Saturday and moderate on Sunday.

It looks like we'll see stronger frontal activity moving in late in the weekend/next week bringing a swing in winds to the west-southwest with building surf. More on this in the coming updates.