Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th June)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Wednesday exposed beaches (afternoon Surf Coast), Thursday morning Surf Coast for the keen, Sunday (check back Wednesday)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mix of swells tomorrow with N/NW winds on the Surf Coast (tending N'ly to the east)
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Wed with strong N'ly winds
• Easing W/SW swell Thu with W/NW tending fresh S/SE winds
• Moderate sized pulses of SW-S/SW swell Fri through Sun with fresh S'ly winds Fri, moderate S/SW Sat and variable Sun

Recap

A great weekend of waves across the Surf Coast with all day offshore winds Saturday and our first pulse of mid-period W/SW swell and long-range groundswell coming in between 3-5ft across the magnets. A bit of north in the wind also offered up plenty of options not just on the Surf Coast but also to the east of Melbourne.

Yesterday was similar in size but mostly mid-period energy as winds shifted more W/NW ahead of a shallow W/SW change, favouring protected spots.

This morning we've got a mix of easing, weaker swells from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast along with offshore winds ahead of another shallow SW change.

This week and weekend (Jun 28 – Jul 3)

The shallow nature of today's change will be realised into tomorrow as winds quickly revery back to the N/NW for the morning, shifting more N'ly east of Melbourne and likely holding most of the day.

This will be as our current mix of W/SW-SW swell energy eases further in size, dropping back from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east. This should be a fun day of waves with options across all regions.

Wednesday will see winds strengthen from the N'th ahead of a mid-latitude frontal progression pushing in from the west and while starting from a small base, some new W/SW groundswell energy is due to build through the day, peaking into the afternoon.

This swell has been generated by a less than favourably aligned by healthy fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW-NW winds that developed south-west of Western Australia on the weekend, dipping south-east through our swell window.

Size and consistency wise it won't be great for the Surf Coast with building sets to an very infrequent 2ft to possibly 3ft due on the swell magnets into the afternoon, better to the east and reaching 4-5ft.

The swell will ease into Thursday from a small, slow 2ft+ on the Surf Coast with 4ft sets to the east and winds will shift W/NW ahead of a S/SE change during the middle of the day as a trough pushes through.

Now the movement of this trough is still under speculation with it due to feed into a deepening coastal trough off the East Coast, resulting in the formation of a low pressure system. Where and when is still undecided but either way a strong high sitting to our west will support the deepening trough, resulting in a run of poor winds from the S'th from Friday through Saturday, likely weakening on Sunday and becoming more variable.

Swell wise, we've got a mix of SW-S/SW energy due do fill in from Friday, with a mix of periods owing to the varies strength of a progression of polar fronts. The whole progression looks weaker than forecast late last week but we're still expecting moderate sized levels of swell, likely building to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast Friday and 6ft to the east but with fresh S'ly winds, holding a similar size through Saturday and Sunday with reinforcing pulses.

With the local winds, Sunday looks the pick at this stage but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday and Friday.