Upgrade in the weekend's size
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 8th June)
Best Days: Protected spots keen surfers tomorrow and Friday mornings, Saturday protected spots experienced surfers, Monday morning experienced surfers Surf Coast, Tuesday morning Surf Coast (possibly afternoon the beaches to the east)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell building tomorrow, peaking Fri AM
- Secondary pulse of slightly stronger swell later Fri, Sat AM
- Stronger again pulse building later Sat with a large S/SW groundswell Sun
- Strong W/SW-SW winds tomorrow and Fri (W/NW for a period through the AM)
- Fresh W/NW tending stronger W winds Sat
- Strong SW tending S/SW winds Sun, easing a touch later
- Mod-fresh SW winds Mon (likely W/NW Surf Coast in the AM)
- N/NW tending N winds Tue
Recap
A continuation of raw surf even in protected spots on the Surf Coast yesterday and today, coming in at 3ft to occasionally 4ft, strongest and most consistent today. There have been reasonable waves for keen surfers out of the wind.
This week and weekend (Jun 9 - 12)
We've got an upgrade in the coming S/SW swell energy up through Bass Strait as the large Southern Ocean gyre that's developed under the influence of a very slow moving and pronounced node of the Long Wave trough sits a bit further west and more in our swell window.
Currently we're seeing mid-period S/SW swell energy with unfavourable winds and this will continue over the coming days with the mornings being best west of Melbourne as winds tip more W'ly before reverting back to a more persistent onshore flow.
With the constant wind out to sea and short-lived periods of slightly more favourable winds the ocean sea state as a whole will be quite raw and mixed with energy spanning the windswell, mid-period and slightly stronger period spectrum.
Looking at the timing of swell pulses, we'll see a strengthening polar front projecting up and across Tasmania this evening and tomorrow morning generating a moderate + sized mid-period S/SW swell for tomorrow afternoon and Friday morning, with the Surf Coast expected to reach a consistent 4ft, with 6ft sets to the east.
Winds tomorrow morning ahead of the swell should be strong from the W/NW on the Surf Coast, shifting W/SW-SW through the later morning with Friday playing out similarly.
A secondary front projecting up towards us tomorrow afternoon and evening should generate a fresh pulse of mid-period S/SW swell energy for later Friday and more so Saturday morning with 4ft+ sets due on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east and with fresh W/NW winds through the morning, strengthening during the day while holding from the W.
This strengthening of the wind will be associated with the strongest of all the polar fronts projecting up and into us through the day, generating a larger S/SW groundswell for Sunday that looks to come in at a stormy 8ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, 8-10ft to the east but with strong SW tending S/SW winds. Options under this scenario will be severely limited.
From Monday we'll see the Southern Ocean gyre shifting further east, resulting in a gradual easing in size and period through Monday and Tuesday as winds slowly improve.
Monday morning looks to remain onshore from the S/SW, but with pressure gradients easing and such a cold air mass across the region, local W/NW offshore winds are more than likely on the Surf Coast. We should see easing sets from the 4-5ft range on the Surf Coast, down to 3ft into the afternoon with 6ft+ sets to the ease.
Tuesday looks smaller and fading from 2ft to occasionally 3ft but with a N/NW tending N breeze. Locations to the ease should improve into the afternoon with easing 3ft+ sets.
As touched on the last couple of updates, a strong high sitting to the west of the large Southern Ocean gyre will limit any major swells being produced for the middle of next week, but we may see some small, weak mid-period W'ly swell Thursday/Friday under winds from the western quadrant. More on this Friday.
Comments
All adds up to a crowded Cowards Cove.
Watching it right now and there are half a foot bombs rolling through. It’s only going to get better from here on out. With just 500 of your nearest and dearest mates yew
There are a few cowards coves along the Surf Coast and GOR. Hopefully that might spread out the long weekend crowds, although I'm sure they will still be packed.
Weatherman no need to tell fibs, I know you know and we all know there’s no point venturing anywhere beyond the confines of T town. So let’s all just pile in and accept it for what it’s going to be; a cesspool of snaking drop ins with at least 15 people per wave plus 9 surfers over the falls head first while duck diving (make sense of that one) and another 426 people floating down the line with either; 1. No sense 2. No brains 3. Missing limbs (recently lost) or 4. A combination of all of the above
As an added bonus I think that bloke on the inside called party wave
That's still better than some Perth breaks rukus.
Weekend will progress as such: "omg, frothing, it's going to be huge, let's drive to the coast... ah, yeah, it's pretty big, hmm where should we go, hmm it's too big, hmm resort town, isolated point, or the cove? hey, the cove is sweeet, but how's the crowd. see you out there!"
It's a sweet little wave tho, love the vista; the wind was shielded to silver glass inside this arvo, looked beaut so I stopped and took the scene in while driving past.
It really did have a steely sheet glass to it yesty arvo ;) & with a few mini nugs running down the inside bank.
With no expectations of common decency or expecting a civilised lineup it can be a fun vibe and plenty of entertainment :) it’s very much every man, woman and dog for themselves!! But its also nice seeing grommies getting pitted or the wave if their life :)
To be honest crowds don’t bother me in most circumstances, bring some patience & common courtesy and waves will come to you. Most of the time I strangely find myself scoring beautiful waves either by myself or with the nicest of chill low key crew. Can’t complain
Hope the steely sheet glass once again rolls down the point for you, a few open up with a clean line free of the on mass sharkbait flotilla plus no one drops in late, goes over the falls and lands on your head mid pit (I’ve seen it before)
Have fun y’all
One could argue the surf coast is a cowards cove, given it's (mis)alignment to incoming swells.
But that's what makes it offshore so much :)
Don’t forget Petty Coat Point