Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 1st June)

Best Days: Thursday Surf Coast, Saturday for the keen Surf Coast, Sunday through Tuesday morning Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Rapidly easing S/SW swell tomorrow with NW winds, tending N/NW late
• Small leftovers Fri with strong N/NW winds
• Inconsistent, small mid-period W/SW swell Sat with fresh NW winds
• Better W/SW swell building Sun with strong N/NW tending NW winds
• Inconsistent SW groundswell mixed in with W/SW swell building Mon with gusty W/NW winds
• Mix of swells Tue with W/NW tending S/SW winds early PM
• Moderate sized swells for the rest of next week with SW winds for the most part

Recap

A cold, broad and strong low started to edge in from the west yesterday and it opened up a better swell generating fetch than forecast on Monday along with favourable winds for protected spots. Building surf from 2-3ft to 4ft+ was seen through the day and late afternoon on the Surf Coast, with today coming in around the large 8ft range under strong W'ly winds. We'll see conditions deteriorate soon as winds shift SW thanks to the low pushing further east.

Wild and woolly

This week and next (Jun 2 - 10)

Welcome to winter! Brrrr.

The large localised S/SW swell generated by strong to gale-force S/SW winds projecting up into us from Tasmania's West Coast will start to ease this afternoon as the low moves east and a weaker mid-latitude frontal system pushes in from the west.

The swell will ease fairly quickly in period and size, dropping from 3ft to possibly 4ft across the Surf Coast early tomorrow morning and 4-5ft to the east. The approaching front should swing winds around to the NW, creating great conditions across the Surf Coast, bumpy to the east though likely tending more N/NW late afternoon. Get in early for all the size though.

Come Friday there won't be much size left at all and strengthening N/NW winds will favour the Surf Coast with 1-2ft leftovers.

The weak mid-latitude front should bring some inconsistent new W/SW swell for the weekend but size wise it won't be anything significant or strong. The swell should be in the water all weekend with 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets Saturday, 3-5ft to the east, while Sunday should see some better, more consistent mid-period W/SW swell building.

This will be generated by a fetch of strong SW tending W/SW winds projecting up and through the Bight tomorrow and Friday.

Building surf to a more consistent 3ft is due on the Surf Coast through the day Sunday with 4-5ft+ sets to the east. Winds will be best for the Surf Coast with a gusty NW breeze Saturday, strong and tricky Sunday and from the N/NW tending NW.

Some less consistent, long-period SW groundswell is due to fill in Monday, peaking through the afternoon, generated by the earlier stages of the front linked to Sunday's swell. Currently a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds are being generated around the Heard Island region, in our far swell window and this should provide inconsistent 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast Monday afternoon, 6ft to the east on the sets, holding Tuesday with some additional low quality S/SW swell in the mix offering more consistent surf to 4ft west of Melbourne.

Winds should be favourable all day Monday and out of the W/NW, good again Tuesday morning ahead of a S/SW change early afternoon. Average winds then look to persist into the middle to end of the week out of the SW (possibly dipping W'ly for periods each morning on the Surf Coast). We'll take a closer look at this Friday.