Strong but rapidly easing swell, towards an extended slow period
Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th May)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Initially solid but easing surf with abating SW winds Thurs; brief W/NW window west of Melbourne
- Light winds and smaller leftovers Fri
- E'lies for the weekend with small surf Sat, and a minor long period reinforcement Sun
- Small surf and light winds for most of next week
- Possible frontal systems and the next swell event the following weekend onwards
Recap
A quick recap on size here, which I’ll detail more comprehensively below. Tuesday saw clean conditions on the Surf Coast all day, with the morning offering 4-5ft surf at most breaks, and occasional 6ft sets at the regional swell magnets (much bigger surf east of Melbourne, but wind affected and this only surfable inside protected corners). During the early afternoon, wave heights began to slowly build, and the last hour or so of daylight produced some very solid sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets, in the 8ft+ range. Surf size continued to build incrementally overnight, and this morning has seen steady 8ft sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets, with bigger sets pushing 10ft though mid-late morning and into lunchtime. The touted early window of clean conditions lasted longer than expected, with winds not veering W’ly until noon. In fact, we even saw a brief period mid-morning when the wind went back NW, cleaning up the westerly wobble through the lineup. East of Melbourne was much bigger again with sheltered spots offering the only optoins.
This week (May 19 - 20)
OK, before we get to the outlook, it’d be good to touch base on a few things regarding the current swell event. Mainly around forecast expectations, and where they should be positioned (from my end).
(also, please bear in mind this is not an editorial piece that's been fleshed out, revised and edited over the course of several days; it’s a fifteen minute thought-drope, that I think warrants further discussion).
For a moment, let’s reflect back on the last twelve months of Vicco surf. There won’t be many arguments that it’s been one of the worst multi-season run of waves experienced in several decades.
So, as a consequence, when the charts line up like they did, where do you set the expectation levels for an event like this?
There's been wide range of opinions in the comments of Monday's notes, and as I was offline for much of yesterday I wasn't able to respond in a timely manner. So, here's how it looks from my end.
As of 2pm this afternoon, Cape Sorell was still trending up (!), showing Hsig of around 7.5m. Max wave heights reached 14m late Tuesday. Peak swell periods are just under 16 seconds, and have been for the last day. Swell direction is close to SW.
By any yardstick, this is a remarkable swell event.
We’ve had four consecutive days above 4m Hsig, three days above 5m Hsig and two days above 6m Hsig.
And for Hsig to reach 7.5m at the tail end of such a long sequence of large waves, is indeed a Very Rare Thing.
It's actually quite similar to the trend characteristics we’d expect of a super charged trade swell in SE Qld, except wave heights are two or three times the size and the swell periods are almost double.
Now, although we may all differ in the way we measure surf size, it's certainly been a very large surf event too. How big was the surf during this year's Rip Curl Pro? I wasn't on the forecasting bench, but off the top of my head, there was at least one day where the sets were up around the 6ft mark.
This morning's surf (and late yesterday, too) was far in excess of that. And up until lunchtime today it’s been clean with offshore winds.
So, again the question: where do you set expectations? I don’t see any benefits in purposefully undervaluing the surf, in order to alleviate potential disappointment. I prefer to call it as I see it. And thus, live or die by the sword.
As for how accurate my prediction was: my take is that the size reached the expected numbers, but the whole cycle ran some 6-12 hours behind (the scientific reasons for that are worthy of a seperate thesis).
One point I will make is that extended daylight in the summer months means you can surf until 8:30pm, but this time of year it’s dark at 5:30pm. Given the very large sets observed late yesterday, I reckon an extra three hours of light would have resulted in many more observations of a similar nature. But, that’s the nature of the (forecasting) beast.
Also, I think a few people have honed in on specifics (like size), and ignored other parameters (like the trend). For Torquay, Monday’s notes suggested 4-6ft on Tuesday and 6-8ft at the swell magnets, which came in at 4-5ft and 6ft respectively - at the lower end of forecast expectations, but still within a reasonable error margin.
As for the arrival of the main pulse, I mentioned that it would “kick in strongly mid-late afternoon, and that "this could very well see the odd 8-10ft+ set push through the swell magnets late in the day”. It’s debatable whether the Surf Coast swell magnets saw any 10ft sets by close of business Tuesday, but there were easy 8ft sets, and it was most definitely bigger than the morning. I really wouldn't have minded that extra three hours of sunlight, too, just to see how big it got.
Anyway, that’s an awful lot of ranting on my part, so thanks if you've made it this far. In fact I’m tempted to simply delete the above and simply move on without further discussion… but I think that’d do a disservice to what’s sometimes a disregarded part of the forecasting service: how to appropriately peg expectations.
As for the surf outlook for the rest of the week: it’s very academic; down Thursday, then down even more Friday.
Thursday will be under the influence of a post-frontal SW breeze, though parts of the Surf Coast should see a few hours of early light W/NW winds. There’ll be a wobble through the lineup (from today’s winds) but with easing size from 4-5ft to 3-4ft during the day this will be your best option. The regional swell magnets may see a few bigger sets early.
As usual, exposed beaches east of Melbourne will be a write-off and we’ll start to head into that borderline size territory for some of the sheltered bays and coves. So, early will be best no matter where.
Light variable winds are then expected on Friday as wave heights continue to ease form 2-3ft west of Melbourne and 4-5ft east of Melbourne. There’ll be lumpy but OK waves at most open beaches.
This weekend (May 21 - 22)
The Southern Ocean storm track has shut down in recent days thanks to blocking pattern upstream (see the big high across SA in the char below), so we’re looking at very small waves this weekend. And, winds will swing E/NE which will favour the open beaches east of Melbourne.
Surf size will trend down from 3-4ft to 2-3ft on Saturday, and it'll become even less consistent, however a small long period groundswell is expected to arrive Sunday, sourced from a couple of strong but poorly consolidated storms well SW of West Oz at the moment (see below).
Swell periods should kick to around 18 seconds from late Saturday but Sunday will likely deliver slow 1-2ft waves in general, with extremely inconsistent 3ft sets every half an hour. It’ll be clean with light winds but you’ll be better off making the most of Saturday.
Expect very small surf west of Melbourne.
Next week (May 23 onwards)
This broadscale blocking pattern mentioned above is a bit of a problem, as it’s going to push the storm track up into the Southern Indian Ocean, and away from our swell window. As such we’re looking at very small swells for most of next week with generally light winds. So, expect small surf at the regional swell magnets east of Melbourne for quite some time.
We may see a break down of this block later next week, leading to a cycle of fronts through the region next weekend and a subsequent increase in surf size into the start of the following week, but that's a long time away.
See you Friday!
Comments
Oh man, I've gone and rambled again. Soz.
Appreciate the detailed recap Ben. The actual time we spend surfing a wave is such a small time component of being a surfer. I for one enjoy just being in the ocean, watching others surf, watching mother nature do it's thing and trying to understanding why it is happening. Your analysis, forecasts and recaps are all part of the experience. Predicting the weather let alone swell events is difficult. You get some spot on, you get some elements slighlty wrong. It ain't a perfect science. Keep up the great service.
Don’t ever apologise for going full surf forecaster nerd Benny.
(meant with the greatest of respect too)
Ha! Love the passion for surf forecasting and really the peak of the swell was only a good few hours late, but swell event was flagged at least a week out, - from memory..
Overcall trauma
I thought the forecast was accurate within a few hours - Bells was big on dark last night and bigger this morning - much bigger than the Bells comp - good forecasting given how far these storms are away
Thanks for the detailed synopsis Ben. I surfed the last hour of daylight at Bells last night and conservatively in the 6-8ft range but no bigger. Winki was 6ft and primo conditions but way too crowded with both breaks experiencing extended lulls of 20 mins. Early moonlight surf at Winki this morning 5-6ft not always lined up - some crackers but plenty of burgers in the mix. Similar at bells but a foot or so bigger. Was expecting plenty more grunt just going off the weather maps but locally it seems the west component of the swell was the main issue not so much the height. Not complaining though given our poor run just giving feedback. It was good to surf some juice at least.
Hey Ben, I think the forecasts for what has played out the last few days have been as good as could be expected. Completely within the ballpark. It's mother nature we're dealing with, there are variables. What do people expect- to be told which wave of each set to take of on and where they should surf every time? I hope everyone got some decent waves over the last few days, there were plenty on offer at a range of locations.
Everyone just feels bad now for giving you shit.
Forecast was pretty accurate, I think when you say "this could very well see the odd 8-10ft+ sets" some people are hoping for 12ft and are disappointed when its not.
I think part of the issue may be the vagueness of that statement. You didn't say I'm predicting 8ft or 12ft, just that it could be. I know forecasting is a guessing game and you need to give forecast ranges and also the probability of those ranges occurring, but your forecast could be interpreted so many different ways by who was reading. Tough gig though! I for one am a big fan of your forecasts
I reckon Tim A, weatherman and tubbabird are looking for a free subscription.
I don’t think it was the most accurate forecast Ben’s ever done, not having a dig, just my opinion.
The vast majority of them that Ben and Craig do are spot on.
Nothing wrong with a bit of feedback that’s not entirely positive.
Ben whilst you weren’t spot on you weren’t far off, omelette was a little over done but I don’t even really like omelettes so who gives a fuck, I had fun last couple days.
Hope Craig is enjoying his break wherever he is.
You all are being very generous…… I expect precision……like a Swiss watch.
I would also like heating on the steps back,no one in line up and ruler edged lines with the valley going square and no shutdown sections……and while you are at it can a sharpshooter take out that fucking camera looking up the valley encouraging more human traffic.
In my 35 years experience it was just another solid swell that wasn,t perfect and was very slow yesterday and bigger and wobbly today….but far better than the recent past
With every swell there are a couple of sets that hit the back of Rincon that are noticeably bigger than the average range …..8 foot ….10 foot ? Possibly…probably
Saw a few drainers amongst the mass of humanity and current but just like life…. Sometimes you get lucky and they seem to come your way.
For those of us who search for the windows of quality when the masses aren't switched on to it, Swellnet getting it wrong, or slightly wrong (as was possibly the case here, whether due to size, direction, timing or something else), is a necessity. Given the crowds on the surf coast due to the rising local population, combined with the rise in proportion of people taking up surfing, the work from home factor, and spoonfed forecasts, if swellnet got it 100% right 100% of the time I would just about give up surfing Bells and Winki. Long may surf forecasting remain nuanced and inexact.
Link to nice video my mate made of Bells on Tues morn b4 swell really hit. Feel free to post on your Swellnet fast news Ben.
On another note I think Dave Rasta was out at winki on Tues arvo. He had same idea as myself sitting wide waiting for the odd big set. Crowd went from 15 to 60 in the space of 30mins around 3pm tues arvo
Swell was certainly solid, but not crazy. Imo a combination of the W direction and massive tidal shift undercut some of its potential
Gary reckons that a forecast of 6-8 building to 8-10+ worked a treat by keeping a lot of punters away from the coast yesterday. .
Whilst it was a bit behind schedule, conditions were A+ and Gary surfed somewhere with pretty moderate crowds. Not a bad day in the water
I was watching the winki cam this morning and saw a monstorous clean up set, took out the whole lineup and on the cam it actually came into view from the left side of the frame and broke left to meet the oncoming close out from the right. Plenty of thumpings too. Folks getting swatted mid wave. Plenty of juice in it!
Some big sets were coming through at W.P.. A few people got hammered in the washing machine of doom ;-P.
Is Mr Tee boogie fever of the south?
When Gary G is calling it not a bad day without one sexual entendre (he must be in some sort of shock from a great day of waves) and Mr Tee has seen a few people getting hammered in the washing machine of doom its must have been a decent couple of days. Clocked up 16 hrs of surfing over 3 days including a number of leg burners with people of all walks of life, scoring, sharing & enjoying waves of quality so can't definitely can't complain. Thanks Benny
Are people who thank surf forecasters when the waves are good the same people who clap when the plane lands?
I'm not really one for insults however you're a C#$k Stok... With assistance of this site, Benny working OT in Craigs absence and some confirmation bias I was able re-arrange my work week to surf 16 hours over 3 days.
Thats not to mention the rest of the Swellnet crew who put in the yards week in week out (including many quality contributors). Not just forecasting but high quality content of all sorts
Its called appreciation. Maybe you should try it one day.
Just having a laugh Ruckus.
The waves will come, or they won't, regardless of what our SN saviours have to say.
p.s. very happily a subscriber and a big fan of their cams, forecaste notes and content!
Ps. I always applaud the pilots
Don't be so hard on yourself Benny Boy. I still remember quite vividly when we had to try and predict the upcoming swells by studying the four day synoptic charts in the Sun or Age. I've still got the cuttings glued in spiral bound note books with a description of the days surf and weather (which I pull out every now and then for reference). You are doing every subscriber a wonderful service by taking a lot of the guessing game out of it, particular those who have to travel. I certainly got my fill over the last 48 hours and got very excited a week ago when you gave me the heads up. Thank you.
The system never squarely addressed our swell window and I think you hosed it down earlier before upgrading it as it stalled so it was a pretty good read on a less than ideal set-up. And you care enough to scream at the internet
Wasn’t perfect but was pretty close to the forecast I’d say just need to click around a touch more sw on Tuesday to be proper pumping I think.
I for one love it being a bit out sometimes and Mother Nature still having a couple tricks up her sleeve, my most memorable surf here at home was about 8-10 years ago when the forecast called it 2-3 ft but by the end of the day the swell went more sw and it was 6-8ft. perfection and it was a Saturday and there was fuck all crew to be seen
Happy days
Thanks for everyone's contributions, it's been a great discussion.. I enjoy all feedback, positive and negative. Just continually striving to improve the service.
Today's WOTD shows Wednesday's size reasonably well - open the image up into a new tab for a closer look.
Could have been worse Ben - you called have called today's dawn conditions 7/10 and then followed it up at 8am with a 6/10...
Just stirring...
We live by the notes, we die by the notes. Thought the notes were fine, smidge off but otherwise pretty accurate! Don’t apologise to us, we’re not worthy, we’re not woooooorthy
Winki and Bells Yesterday
Easy triple overhead in the WOTD equates to 18ft faces. Let’s call it 9ft give or take on the sets. Regardless it’s about time Victoria and southern ocean fired up and displayed what it’s capable of. Gotta be thankful for that. It’s been a long time in the making
For the love of god, please don't call it 9ft.
Simple mathematics Ben
If you had to call it a range on the solid sets you would say 8-10ft+ ;)
Interesting point this one too as raised in the prior forecast notes;
‘but the whole cycle ran some 6-12 hours behind (the scientific reasons for that are worthy of a seperate thesis)’
Very interesting
I understand the maths, I'm just adhering to the linguistics.
7-9 foot
Vomit emoji
Nailed it goofy
Hammer emoji
7-9ft is without a doubt the best and most accurate call I’ve heard through this whole damn event although some Hawaiians may argue with that one.
They pegged it at 3 & 1/2 ft max on the sets grading to 1-2ft runners in between.
Cut from a entirely different cloth when it comes to calling surf size those Hawaiians
hahaha
Ben don;t ever feel you need to justify the forecasts. I started surfing in the 80's and at least 20% of my trips to the coast for many years ended in disappointment and going home dry, and most of them were only weekends as we never had the flexi time everyone seems to be on these days. Now days, I reckon it's only 2 or 3 times a year, and most times I'm surfing the right spot with the right board due to your teams awesome efforts. Love this site, and look forward to the forecasts all the time. And size wise, the floggings i had over the last 2 days tell me it was plenty big enough, the bloody nose has been running flat out all over the floor at work!
Remember the MMM surf reports with Shirley Straughan?
I would often be in the car park looking at a flat onshore ocean and he would be calling it epic and off shore :)
Casting my mind back 40+ years to when I was a kid there were no forecasts you just had to get really good at reading weather charts and hope there was swell (when we did weather in Geography in year 9 my teacher accused me of cheating) The odd surf mission with your Mum driving or someone else's big brother would end up with beautiful offshore clean conditions at Torquay but no swell. Then there was the famous phone number you could call around 7am and get a recorded surf report for that day - I think Rod brooks may have done but can't be sure - but really it was often a bit late by the time you got there from Melbourne.
So Ben in my books your surf report was spot on , If I'd been able to get down there and was perhaps a bit younger and fitter i would have got great waves as you forecast ...... keep up the good work.